This is a guest post by Michael Bailey and Forrest Maltzman, authors of The Constrained Court. In November 2011, they predicted that the Court would uphold the Affordable Care Act, based on modeling of the justices’ ideological preferences and attitudes toward precedent. ***** After months of excruciating waiting, guessing and waiting some more we now […]
PapaBigears
Some Predictions on the Supreme Court’s Decision
Before the Court issues its ruling, I’ll put these down: How will the Court rule? Back in November, Michael Bailey did some modeling based on the justices’ ideologies and deference precedent and predicted a 6-3 or even 7-2 decision in favor of the ACA. Scott Lemieux was dubious about this modeling. Based on the oral […]
The Importance of Studying the Obvious
Duncan Watts responds to the efforts to defund the NSF’s political science program: So why is social science research uniquely and repeatedly singled out for this sort of criticism? Because it’s about us. In brief, we don’t have any experience being ants or atoms, so if I tell you something about them that you didn’t […]
Measuring the Impact of Obama’s “Private Sector Is Fine” Comment
Michael Tesler follows up on my earlier post. He demonstrates two key facts. First, people who knew of Obama’s comment appear less persuadable than those who did not know of it. This is why campaign gaffes are not necessarily consequential: the people who know about them have already made up their minds. Second, Tesler compares […]
Bayesians, Frequentists, and Lance Armstrong
This is a guest post by Nathan Paxton. ***** Lance Armstrong has returned to the news, and the Tour de France is upon us in just a few more days. For those of you who don’t follow professional cycling, most likely the first thing that comes to mind about the sport is doping. Indeed, that’s why Armstrong […]
More Reactions to the Stephens Op-Ed
I am sure this is not exhaustive, but here are some links: Marc Eisner, Jim Johnson, Seth Masket, William Nomikos, Steve Saideman, and Jay Ulfelder. Here are other comments from Professor Stephens.
BREAKING: Many Americans Don’t Have Any Idea that All-Important Political Gaffes Even Happen
After Obama made his comment that the “private sector was doing fine” at that press conference, Chris Cillizza defended the notion that “political gaffes matter” and wrote: Is there anyone paying even passing attention to politics who hasn’t seen the Obama clip five times at this point — which, by the way, is less than […]
Elinor Ostrom and Camp Wapatopa
This is a guest post by Rick Wilson, the Herbert S. Autrey Professor of Political Science at Rice University. ***** There are a lot of great people and scholars in political science. This week we lost one of the best. Elinor (Lin) Ostrom, as already noted on this site, died early Tuesday morning. She left […]
An Arab Spring in Moscow?
This is a guest post from Vsevolod Gunitskiy, a native of St. Petersburg and an assistant professor of international relations at the Department of Political Science and the Munk School of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto. ***** Yesterday Moscow witnessed another boisterous protest against Putin’s regime – the latest in a series of […]
Remembering Elinor Ostrom
I did not know her personally, and am not well-qualified to comment on her work. However, here are some links: University of Indiana news release. Obituaries in the Indianapolis Star and the Washington Post. Matt Yglesias at Slate. An NPR story. Chuck Myers of Princeton University Press. An interview with Ostrom, via Jonathan Robinson. Another […]

