Did Bibi Get Away with it?

Today on TAP: Maybe for the moment. But despite Israel’s vicious tactical victories over Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel remains isolated and vulnerable.

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Defying ordinary decency, international law, and world opinion, Netanyahu destroyed much of civilian Gaza, decapitated the leadership of Hamas, and followed up with a parallel military campaign against Hezbollah, with civilian casualties in central Beirut. Critics warned that this was not only barbaric, but that it would spread Israel’s military far too thin.

But for now, Netanyahu’s strategy has worked. A much-weakened Hezbollah has agreed to a 60-day cease-fire, largely dictated by Israel. The always fragile government of Lebanon, which views Hezbollah as an interloper that draws Israeli fire, has gratefully gone along.

None of this is any thanks to Joe Biden, who supplied weapons, bleated about the need for Israeli restraint, and was totally rolled by Netanyahu.

At home, Netanyahu is more popular than ever. The Israeli pro-peace left is all but wiped out. Israeli democracy is a shambles. Illegal annexations and brutalities in the occupied West Bank continue. And one way or other, given his popularity and willingness to defy the rules, Netanyahu is very likely beat the criminal charges against him.

Remind you of anybody?

More from Robert Kuttner

This is an era when autocrats can isolate opponents, undermine democracy, be as brutal as the need to, and get away with it. Putin, Trump, and Netanyahu are variations on the theme.

But what comes next for Israel? Unlike Russia and the United States, Israel is a tiny country surrounded by a sea of hostile nations. Netanyahu’s bet is that the deep hostility of the Sunni Muslim states, notably Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, toward Shiite Iran and its proxies in Hamas and Hezbollah will allow for some kind of regional settlement.

The devil, of course, is in the details. The irony is that it now falls to Trump to bring the deal home and restrain some of Israel’s more outlandish fantasies, such as making full-scale war on Iran or taking over Gaza.

Trump said of Gaza during the campaign, “They [the Palestinians] never took advantage of it. You know, as a developer, it could be the most beautiful place — the weather, the water, the whole thing, the climate. It could be so beautiful… it could be one of the best places in the world.”

Some restraint.

Bibi may win this round militarily and save his own skin, but Israel is further away from real security than ever.

Under Trump’s first term, one of the few concrete achievements were the so-called Abraham Accords of 2020, the first step toward normalization of relations between Israel and some of the smaller Muslim nations in the region, such as the Emirates and Bahrain. Saudi Arabia, the key to a larger regional deal, was not included.

Now, Saudi terms for a settlement with Israel will be even more far-reaching. The Saudi leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), is said to want nuclear technology and other advanced weapons as part of the deal. The idea of the Saudis as a counterweight to Iran is complicated by the fact that last year Saudi Arabia normalized relations with Iran. A Saudi leader was recently quoted as saying, that they “have to live with Trump for only four years but with Iran for one thousand years.”

There is also the question of who will rebuild Gaza, who will pay the cost, and who will serve as the interim government. The Saudis could write the check, but it’s a non-starter for Israel to do the rebuilding, and the idea of a “reconstituted Palestinian Authority” strikes many knowledgeable people as a fantasy. In principle, some interim multinational governing authority under the aegis of the UN might work, but Trump is totally hostile to the UN and friendly to the idea of Israeli developing Gaza as beachfront property.

In Trump’s first term, as Peter Beinart has observed, his foreign policy advisers restrained his more grandiose fantasies. This time, Beinart writes, “He has begun assembling even more extreme supporters of a ‘greater Israel’ that would extend from the river to the sea: Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, UN Ambassador Elise Stefanik, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff.”

In short, Bibi may win this round militarily and save his own skin, but Israel is further away from real security than ever. And Trump, far from promoting a durable peace, is likely to further inflame the region.

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