Matt Rourke/AP Photo
Average U.S. mortgage rates are now in excess of 7 percent—while there is also a dire shortage of affordable housing.
The third-quarter numbers on economic growth, released yesterday by the Commerce Department, contained some surprisingly good news. But the good news is bad news, in that it will likely reinforce the Fed’s resolve to hike interest rates by another three quarters of a point when our central bankers meet again next week. This will be the fifth such rate hike.
First, the good news:
After declining in the first two quarters, the economy returned to growth, expanding at an annual rate of 2.6 percent, meaning that we are nowhere near a recession. Also good news was the fact that virtually all of the growth was the result of increased U.S. exports.
Some of this export gain reflects temporary factors, such as increased foreign needs for more U.S. energy. But industrial exports were modestly up as well. And this suggests the wisdom of Biden’s Made in America policies. The more we make in America, the more we will export, and that’s good for both jobs and overall economic performance. The export gains are all the more surprising given the overvalued U.S. dollar.
One other piece of good news was buried well down in the report, almost as an aside. The inflation rate fell, more than expected. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index purchases increased 4.5 percent in the third quarter, a decline from the first two quarters.
This deceleration in prices suggests that inflation is moderating, due to both improving supply chain factors and subsiding energy prices, as well as the dampening impact of the Fed’s previous rate hikes. As a number of economists have warned, these rate increases take time to cycle through the economy. And the decelerating inflation is one more sign that price increases are not being driven by wage increases.
The Fed is at risk of moving too far too fast before its previous rate increases have taken full effect. One ominous indicator was the huge decline in housing investment, which dropped at an annualized rate of 26 percent. This is a prime consequence of the Fed’s tight monetary policy, which raises financing costs both to builders and to homebuyers.
Average mortgage rates, which were below 4 percent before the Fed’s rate-hike binge, are now in excess of 7 percent—and this at a time of a dire shortage of affordable housing. This consequence suggests why interest rate hikes are such a blunt instrument for dealing with inflation, especially the kind of inflation that is as atypical and not demand-driven as this one.
One other piece of slightly good news: Other central banks, which have been forced by the Fed’s hawkish policies to raise their own rates to defend their currencies, are already moderating their tight-money policies. Canada’s central bank just raised its core rate half a point rather than three quarters of a point, less than expected. And the European Central Bank, citing recession risks, signaled that future rate increases will probably be lower, too.
It remains to be seen when the Fed will follow suit and conclude that the time for economic strangulation is over.
