NPR told listeners tonight that 2009 was much better than had been expected. Not on this planet.
In fact, by most measures, most importantly unemployment, 2009 has been far worse than was even predicted well into the year. The Congressional Budget Office predicted in January of 2009 that unemployment for the year would average just 8.3 percent. Even the "adverse scenario" used in the stress tests applied by the Federal Reserve Board to the major banks in April assumed a year-round average unemployment of just 8.9 percent. If December's unemployment rate is 10.0 percent, then the year-round average would be 9.3 percent.
In short, the economy is clearly much worse than expected, not better. Of course banks have done much better than expected.
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