A NYT article on the opposition to independence among immigrants to Quebec, tells readers that "economists say Quebec has little choice but to embrace the immigrants because of a plummeting native birthrate that would otherwise reduce economic growth." It then cites an economist with the Conference Board of Canada as saying that any growth in the workforce will have to come from immigrants. There is no obvious reason that Quebec should need growth in the workforce, nor is total GDP growth the normal measure of economic health used by economists. Economists usually consider per capita GDP growth the best first measure of economic growth. If the population grows more slowly, or even shrinks, Quebec residents can still be better off if they have higher per capita GDP growth. Also, a declining workforce presents no obvious problems because it can be more than offset by even modest rates of productivity growth. It is unlikely that Quebec's demographics will cause the size of the workforce to decline by more than a few tenths of a percent annually. This impact would be dwarfed by the impact of a 1.5 percent annual rate of productivity growth. This means that the province could continue to increase its GDP even if the size of its workforce dwindled. It is also important to note that Canada is a signatory to the Kyoto agreement which restricts its emissions of greenhouse gases. Meeting its emission targets will be less costly with a smaller population.
--Dean Baker
