The consensus estimate for retail sales growth in December was 0.5 percent. Naturally, people were surprised when growth was reported at 0.9 percent, as the NYT (among others) told us. Well, they really should not have been surprised, because the November numbers were revised down by 0.4 percent, which means that the December sales level was just where the consensus estimate put it. For the quarter, nominal retail sales grew by less than 0.1 percent. The growth may end up being somewhat better in real terms, because there was a sharp decline in gasoline prices over this period. We'll know more when we get the CPI data this week, but it does not appear to have been a strong quarter for retail in any case.
--Dean Baker
