NPR concluded a mostly good discussion of the oil market with the statement that "you never know when you're in a bubble." This is partially true in that we can never be certain of whether a particular run-up in prices is due to fundamentals or speculation, but of course we can never be entirely certain of anything.
There are real fundamentals in any market and a good understanding of these fundamentals will allow one to determine whether or not a particular market is subject to a bubble. It was possible to recognize the stock bubble and housing bubble long before they burst. The economists and analysts who did not recognize these bubbles failed in their jobs in a really huge way. If they held jobs in which workers were held accountable for their performance, they would have been fired.
Unlike many news organizations, the Prospect has remained staunchly committed to keeping our journalism free and accessible to all. We believe that independent journalism is crucial for a functioning democracy—but quality reporting comes at a cost. From Trump’s threat to the free press to Musk’s influence on our democracy, there is too much at stake in 2025 to stop now.
We’re behind on our goal to raise $75,000 to continue delivering the hard-hitting investigative journalism you’ve come to expect from us. Your support helps us maintain our independence and dig deeper into the stories that matter most.
We need you to make a year-end contribution today. Any amount helps secure our future and ensure we can continue holding power to account.
