The NYT noted the large age-divide over support for President Obama's health care program. While this is real, and has shown up in many polls, it is not clear whether this is based on real concerns or the fact that many seniors now believe in death panels. The piece then suggested that the divide is likely to reappear in debates over Social Security. Actually, that seems unlikely unless President Obama proposes a plan that is much harsher than the plan put forward by President Bush. President Bush's proposal had not cuts in benefits for anyone over age 55. The cuts would have been phased in at the rate of approximately 1.0 percent a year for upper middle income earners. This means that an upper middle income worker who was age 45 at the time of passage would have seen a cut of approximately 10 percent and an upper middle income worker who was age 35 at the time of passage would have seen a cut of approximately 20 percent. (This ignores the effects of compounding.) The elderly had the least reason, at least from direct interest, in opposing the this sort of program. If President Obama puts forward a similar plan, it would be younger workers who stand the most to lose.
--Dean Baker
