The most basic measure of economic health is growth. It is not the whole story -- sometimes growth is very uneven so that all the benefits go to those at the top, or it could be associated with so much environmental degradation that a country may actually be better off with less growth -- but growth is usually a good place to start when examining an economy. In this respect, it is interesting to see that the Washington Post considers Brazil to be enjoying a wave of prosperity, not based on its economic growth, but based on low inflation, a soaring stock market, and a strengthening currency. None of these measures bears any direct relationship to prosperity for most of the population. Low inflation is often associated with weak economic growth, The vast majority of Brazilians own little or no stock, so they don't benefit in any obvious way from a soaring stock market. A rising currency does make imports cheaper for people in Brazil, but it also hurts workers in industries that are subject to international competition. If the Post had examined Brazil's growth rate, it would have a mixed story to tell. The IMF estimates per capita GDP growth in Brazil at 2.3 percent in 2006 and projects that it will be 3.0 percent this year. This is respectable, but certainly not very good for a developing country. By comparison, the NYT indicated that the economy would pose a problem for the incumbent party in the presidential election this fall. The IMF estimates Argentina's per capita GDP growth in 2006 at 7.4 percent and is projecting a 6.4 percent growth rate for 2007.
--Dean Baker
