NYT columnist David Leonhardt notes that the manufacturing sector has slid into a recession and raises the possibility that the rest of the economy might follow suit. To get insight on this topic, he talks to several people who were caught by surprise with the new signs of weakness. It's always good to talk to the people who were shown wrong and ask them how they assess the situation in light of the new evidence. However, it also might be a good idea to talk to some of the people who were not surprised by the economic weakness. After all, once we accept that the earth revolves around the sun, we don't want to get all our information on astronomy from believers in an earth centered universe. (Here's my own two cents on the economic prospects.) Just to remind everyone about the accuracy of econometric forecasters and the lack of consequence in this profession for being completely wrong, in the fall of 2000, not one of the fifty "Blue Chip" forecasters saw the 2001 recession coming.
--Dean Baker
