The NYT has a column today reporting that people's assessment of the economy is heavily influenced by their view of the situtaion in Iraq. While I am open to this view, the chart (sorry not linkable) accompanying the column left me unconvinced. Eyeballing the numbers, we start in May '03 with more than 70 percent of the public thinking that the situation in Iraq is going well. At that time, just over 20 percent report believing that the economy is getting better. Over the next year, the share of the public who think that things in Iraq are going well falls below 40 percent, while the share who think the economy is getting better rises to 30 percent. In the subsequent two years the share of the public who think that things are going well in Iraq hovers near 40 percent, while the sahre who think that the economy is getting better falls below 20 percent. Maybe there's a problem with my eyesight, but I'm afraid that I don't see the correlation.
--Dean Baker
