I hate to repeat myself every month, but if reporters repeat the mistake, then I have to repeat the correction. The year over year comparisons of chain store sales have an upward bias this year compared to more normal years. The reason is very simple, the chains are still there, while many of their competitors are not. In more normal times, there would be some number of new non-chain stores that would open, as well as some number that close. However, in the last year, very few new stores have opened, while many have gone out of business. This means that the surviving chain stores have a larger share of total retail sales in April of 2009 than in April of 2008. Therefore, the WSJ should not be overly impressed by the modest uptick in year over year sales reported for the month.
--Dean Baker
