In the aftermath of September 11, a writer to TheNew York Times spoke for many New Yorkers when he wrote, "There is no more eloquent testimony to the mindlessness of term limits than the performance of Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani during this time of crisis. We mistake change for improvement, and New York City will be the poorer because of our unwillingness to let the voters decide when a leader should depart."
An extraordinary crisis coupled with a gifted leader is a powerful argumentagainst arbitrary limits in the executive branch. It was fortunate for the nationthat President Lincoln could run for a second term in 1864 and PresidentRoosevelt could run for a third term in 1940 and then a fourth in 1944.
The nation's state legislatures present an even stronger argument againstterm limits. There, the pluses--greater diversity, more members with localgovernment experience--can't make up for the damage done. The damage wouldn't beso great if the United States had a parliamentary system filled with backbenchers,one in which the prime minister and the cabinet did the heavy lifting oflawmaking. But, as former Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan has pointed out,legislatures have the real power in the United States.
At the municipal level, term limits make some sense; school boards and citycouncils are where many political careers begin. Yet severe term limits at thestate level are a different matter. And, because the U.S. Supreme Court wiselyruled against term limits being applied to Congress, it is in the nation's statelegislatures where reforms wreak havoc.
In the nation's legislatures, where experience, wisdom, and relationships makeall the difference, the trouble is subtle and deep. Lawmaking, oversight, andleadership all suffer when the players change before any significant progress ismade. And, when people who have only just learned the system are running it, thedanger of a catastrophic mistake--such as California's botched attempt toderegulate its electrical power system--is markedly increased.
In at least 10 of the 19 states with term limits, there have been proposalsthis year to modify or repeal the laws. Maine, Arkansas, and Arizona are amongthe other states where legislators are questioning the wisdom of the voters.
In California, term limits went into effect in 1990. The largest state inpopulation is also the fifth-largest economy in the world. Along with Michigan,California has the strictest term limits in the nation--three two-year terms inthe state assembly and two four-year terms in the senate. The size and complexityof the Golden State--along with the restrictive terms allowed--make theCalifornia legislature a case worth examining.
Once upon a time, the California state assembly was admired for itsprofessionalism and competence. Now, thanks to term limits, the constant churningof new members has left the lower house suspended between the superficial and thechaotic. In the heydays of Jesse Unruh and Willie Brown, the speaker of theassembly was easily the second most-powerful player in the state and often thegovernor's equal. Now the speakership is a short-term gig, a jumping-off platformfor a run for statewide office or big-city mayor.
Dan Savage, chief of staff to Los Angeles Assemblyman Gilbert Cedillo,points at the official photo of the 1998 assembly that shows the 80 members behindtheir desks. Savage goes down the rows: "She's gone to the Senate, she's gone toCongress, he's termed out... ." It's a wonder anyone is left. And that's theidea. Says Savage, "Everyone walks around with an expiration date stamped ontheir forehead."
Debra Bowen, an environmental lawyer who chairs the Energy Committee in theCalifornia State Senate, was first elected to the state assembly in 1992. Sheadmits that term limits put her on the fast track: They've "increasedopportunities for women and minorities. It has opened up the system." Still, theDemocrat remains adamantly opposed. "I ask people in industry, 'How well wouldyour company run if every two years you got a new CEO and one-third of your boardof directors left?'"
Assemblyman Cedillo is one of a growing group of Latino legislators inSacramento. He too realizes the debt that he and other Latinos owe to termlimits. Still, the legislator says the downsides of term limits are significant.
"When you think about professors, brain surgeons, mechanics, the thing theyhave in common is expertise and experience. In any important decision in yourlife, you try to get help from the best person, the most capable, the mostexperienced. So why do we turn government over to amateurs? We are responsiblefor health care, infrastructure, education. What could be more important? It'slike I want to make a movie and instead of hiring Al Pacino, I take a chance onsome high-school kid."
Critics of term limits predicted this loss of expertise, but there are anumber of unintended consequences to ponder. Many of them flow from the newincentive structure created by term limits. In California, until the incumbentterms out, re-election is still almost guaranteed. But now, legislators spendtheir terms planning a safe leap to the next political office. Astute observersunderstand that members in their last term will be anxiously working to securetheir next base.
L.A. resident Cedillo goes for a local sports metaphor to make his point:"Think of athletes on term limits. Imagine telling Shaquille O'Neal, 'Okay, Shaq,your six years are up in the NBA, now you're going to the NFL.' Or Phil Jacksontalking to Kobe Bryant and asking why he is working on his golf swing instead ofhis jump shot. 'Because I have to switch sports next year, Coach, and I have toget ready now.'"
John M. Carey, a professor at Washington University in St. Louis, predictedthe "last-term" problem after studying the effect of term limits on lawmakers inCosta Rica--one of the only countries in the world that had term limits in effectbefore the U.S. experiment. Because "ambitious legislators will cater to thosewho control future career opportunities," says Carey, "we can expect shirking ofduties and outright corruption in the last term." With California State Assemblytenure set at six years by term limits, this means that members will suffer"senior-itis" in their last term. But because the chance for secure advancementcan be tenuous, jumpiness actually occurs much earlier.
"There is an institutional incentive that moves people to run for the statesenate at an accelerated pace," says Savage. "It used to be that the senate hadthe more experienced members. Under the old system, the 'apprenticeship' in theassembly could be six, eight, or 10 years. Now it is literally six to 10 months.If a state senate seat opens up, you've got to go for it."
Bowen says the subject matter can be learned. However, there is more to beinga good legislator than being a quick study. She says, "The big picture is what wereally lose. It is harder for people to see the whole. This is especially true interms of budget and finance."
People too often forget that being a legislator is not just about writingbills, says Bowen. Oversight of agencies and existing programs is a crucial partof the job. When the legislature drops the ball on oversight, an important checkand balance in the constitutional system is weakened. As an example, Bowen pointsto the dismal performance of California's Department of Information Technology:"This is an agency that has never done what it is supposed to do." New memberscontinually "hear the sob story for the first time."
Even those who favor term limits see the problems caused by theCalifornia model. Orange County Republican Curt Pringle became speaker afterBrown's exit. After a failed run for state treasurer, he now heads a corporatepublic-relations firm. Pringle says that he favors term limits but would like tolengthen the amount of time allowed in the legislature. Twelve years, he says,would give members time to learn their jobs, and leaders could practice theircraft. "The average Joe doesn't know there is a job you have to learn in thelegislature," says Pringle. "In fact, there are rules, procedures, techniques,and styles just like any profession. It's not just osmosis. In addition, thereare additional skills for leaders--negotiating, leadership, working with yourcaucus and the other party."
The brevity of power and the inability of leaders to gain experienceconstitute term limits' major flaws. Sheila Kuehl is a state senator from SantaMonica who was speaker pro tem in the assembly. Under strict term limits, shesays, "people have to decide too soon that they want to lead. They are trying toshine before they know the process. It's nothing but blind ambition."
Most observers give former Democratic Speaker Antonio Villaraigosa and hissuccessor, Robert M. Hertzberg, high marks for energy, intelligence, andcollegiality in working with Republican members. Villaraigosa excelled atbringing together coalitions. Hertzberg brought new members and staff up to speedwith his education crash course nicknamed "Hertzberg U." But, having termed out,neither has a chance to apply the lessons they learned. GOP Assemblyman BillLeonard says some bills died at the end of session because they weren't managedcorrectly: "When it's your first time running the show as speaker, that canhappen."
Today, the ballast in the legislature is State Senate President Pro Tem JohnBurton, who began his political career in the state assembly in 1964 and thenmoved on to Congress from 1974 to 1982. When elected to the California senate in1998, he promptly took leadership of the body. Known for his gruff, no-nonsensemanner, the liberal Burton will lead California's upper house until 2004, and hisexperience gives the legislature some continuity of leadership. "We will gothrough four speakers while Burton and Governor [Gray] Davis stay in place," saysthe assembly's majority leader Kevin Shelley, a San Francisco Democrat. Having aperson with Burton's experience as leader is crucial, he says: "It's huge. Hewill be in office as long as Davis is governor, and that makes all thedifference."
But Burton and his senior colleagues in the senate are an anomaly, a vestigeof the past. The assembly shows the future. As the speakership flips every twoyears, so do committee chairs. Pringle says that the critical misconception isthinking about term limits as having set six-year terms. "Leaders themselves turnover so much more quickly than six years. And there is a ripple effect downthrough the committees and staff."
Savage, Shelley, and Bowen all say it takes time to learn to understand peoplein the other party. "It is especially hard to build relationships with people whoare ideologically different than you," according to Savage. In a traditionallegislature, members develop personal bonds and find common ground. Relationshipsacross the aisle are critical, especially in states such as California, where thestate constitution mandates two-thirds votes the budget, to raise taxes orincrease fees, and to pass "urgency" legislation, such as the bills to addressthe state's energy crisis.
Under term limits, time is precious. Everyone is in a hurry. As aresult, people have to ask for support of bills before they have a relationshipwith their colleagues. "It's almost like telemarketing, cold-calling," saysSavage. "This is my bill, this is what it does, and this is why I want yoursupport." In the past, requests like this were embedded in a broader socialrelationship of trust and knowledge built over years--instead of days and months.In addition, says Bowen, "the fact that the legislature is more diverse makes thebonding harder. In the old days, the boys bonded by having a few beers."
Because nothing in state politics gets done except by coalition, bondingand networking among legislators and between parties are critical. "You can'taccomplish anything by yourself," Bowen says. Shelley recalls that when he was akid just out of college working for the legendary Representative Phil Burton inWashington, D.C., the congressman gave him a piece of advice that he's neverforgotten. "We were in the Rayburn Room when he pulled me aside. Burton said,'Remember this, kid, if you want to be successful in this business. Whatever elseyou do, don't lie!' I blurted out, 'Oh, Mr. Congressman, such morality is sonoble.' Then he set me straight: 'No, [expletive deleted]! If you lie, you won'tever be able to cut a deal!'"
"Today people don't seem to understand that," says Shelley as he munches asalad at his desk in a corner office on the capitol's third floor. "They come backto you and say, 'I changed my mind.' And you say, 'But you told me ... ,' andthey say, 'Sorry, things have changed.'" As a result, negotiations are much moreconfusing, and Shelley says, "That is, without question, a product of termlimits."
Shelley grew up the son of the San Francisco mayor and served two terms aspresident of the board of supervisors before going to Sacramento. With his termup, he is running for secretary of state. "It's not that people are lesshonorable," he says. "It's just that they make a calculation that long-rangerelationships are no longer so important. Under term limits, everything isshort-term. People feel like they have to make an immediate impact. Before, ifyour goal was to craft good health-care legislation, you would invest the time tobuild a coalition and bring people to the table," he explains. "Now, it's likethe doctor has told you that you have only one year to live. There is noincentive for the long-term push. Instead, you just go out and introduce a bill."Introduce a bill and claim credit. Such résumé padding hasdramatically pushed up the number of bills introduced in California and otherstates with term limits.
Bowen believes that the problems with term limits are subtle yet profound. "Itaffects how we grapple with larger issues," she says. "Relationships of trustthat transcend party lines ... are the lubrications that move the machinery ofgovernment." For example, Shelley and other Democratic leaders say that theysorely miss former Republican leader Scott Baugh. Baugh forged a good workingrelationship with Democratic leaders and, partially as a result, the budget camein on time in 1999 and 2000.
"Rather than be liberated by term limits, we are more encumbered by politics,"says Cedillo. "People should be focused on their job. Instead, they are focusedon the next step. It makes it more political than it should be. From the firstday, people are lobbying for leadership and thinking about the next office." Bowensays that the politics of such maneuvers reminds her of "all the turtles jostlingand climbing over one another in a pet store."
Leonard, elected to the assembly in 1996 with 15 years of legislativeexperience (none under term limits), suggests that one of the key weaknesses ofthe new regime is the inability of lawmakers to work on complex issues. "Underthe old system," he says, "people would work on something that could take yearsto accomplish."
Today, Cedillo agrees. "You can do the routine, but not the paradigm shifts.Under term limits, how are you going to match jobs with industry?" he asks. "Orthink about global competition? Or how to redo Proposition 13 so that homeownersare protected? Or come up with a policy to deal with the housing/job imbalance inthe state? What collective group of legislators has the stature to take on theseproblems? No one is around long enough to work on them." When term limits come toroost, the big, complex problems are left unattended.
Granted, state governments have not halted and lobbyists have not takenover. Across the nation, newly elected men and women come to the state capitolseager to make their mark. Legislatures are adapting to term limits by fits andstarts. The learning curve has been accelerated. Still, says Kuehl, "experienceis very important, but under term limits you can't have enough to do a good job.There is just not sufficient time to know enough." Of course, legislators aresupremely self-interested. For selfish reasons, they'd love to break free of termlimits. But the triple gaps of leadership, long-term policy, and stablerelationships are real. All seriously weaken the legislative branch.
What can be done? Pringle, besides supporting 12-year limits in bothhouses, says he has approached a national term-limits advocacy group aboutpushing for such a change. "We are not talking about lengthening terms but ratherallowing for leadership," he says.
In March, Californians will vote on a ballot initiative intended to slightlyloosen the limits. The measure would allow voters to sign a petition allowingtheir own legislator to serve an additional four years beyond the regular limit,assuming that the politician can get re-elected. Lawmakers working behind thescenes in support of the measure include Democratic Assemblyman Herb Wesson, thenext speaker, and Democratic Senator Don Perata, who led a failed legislativeeffort to relax term limits last year.
But few observers are optimistic about a change any time soon. Scholars andpoliticians acknowledge that selling the public on the need for adjusting termlimits, much less outright abolition, is tricky at best. "Term limits were cookedup by people who don't like government," says Bowen. "So if government doesn'twork, so what?
"I'll never forget talking to the CEO of one of California's leading high-techfirms. He said, 'You know, I never think about the state government. It's just notimportant. Who needs it? Who cares?'" Bowen observes, "Of course, he could affordto be blasé because he could take for granted that he would have water,roads, schools, infrastructure, services, and not be vandalized. I wonder what hethinks now. The energy crisis might have gotten his attention."
