Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call via AP Images
Dayen-BBB-070125
A Senate staffer goes on a Dunkin run during the vote-a-rama on Monday.
The Senate spun its wheels all day Monday, and went into early Tuesday morning without final text of its Big Beautiful Bill, without final parliamentarian rulings, and without a plan to pass it. But as we hit mid-morning that may be changing.
Trump's Beautiful Disaster banner
Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Susan Collins (R-ME) were the deciding votes on the bill, and for a long while, they got nothing moving in their direction to secure their support. One subtext to Monday’s vote-a-rama is that Murkowski and Collins voted with the Democrats numerous times, including to commit the bill back to committees with instructions. These were free votes for the two, yes, but they signal a lack of full-throated agreement with the bill.
Collins did not get the favor returned for her dalliances with the Democrats. She submitted an amendment that would have doubled the rural hospital fund to $50 billion, while also creating a new 39.6 percent tax bracket for mega-millionaires making over $25 million ($50 million for couples). And it gained the support of 18 Republicans, enough even to defeat a 60-vote threshold if Democrats joined them. But they did not, strategically, voting against it en masse to give Collins no fig leaf to get behind the bill. She apparently has been written off as a no, as Senate leaders focus on Murkowski.
Murkowski got some good news—as did other states—when the parliamentarian signed off on a carve-out for Alaska from Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program state cost-sharing. Initially, parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough signaled that the waiver from cost-sharing was improper, so Republicans had to expand it to the ten states with the highest program error rates. Alaska is in there, but so are large states like New York, Florida, Georgia, and New Jersey, as well as blue states like Oregon, Maryland, New Mexicom Massachusetts, and the District of Columbia.
But another attempt to rewrite language to give Alaska a boost in the federal share of Medicaid payments failed. Senate leaders attempted to expand that Medicaid boost to more sparsely populated states, which just happen to coincide with the home states of Senate Majority Leader John Thune (South Dakota) and Majority Whip Tom Barrasso (Wyoming). If they just expanded that generosity to all 50 states they just might get a deal! But for now they can’t help Alaska’s Medicaid program out.
Murkowski also wants clean energy tax credits to be phased out more slowly, and she signed onto an amendment to that effect. But that amendment will apparently not get a vote now.
The point here is that the leadership wouldn’t be doing all this if they had Murkowski’s vote locked up. As of press time, there does seem to be some stirring. Overnight Murkowski and Senate Finance Committee members were huddled in the Senate chamber going through the bill.
Meanwhile, a deal on the state AI regulation ban between Sens. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) and Ted Cruz (R-TX) blew up when Blackburn backed out, calling the language of the deal “not acceptable to those who need the protections most.” Blackburn was on her own with that deal, and Republicans opposed to state pre-emption of AI regulations clearly convinced her not to go forward. Overnight, Senators passed an amendment to strip out the controversial provision by the incredible count of 99-1. (Only Thom Tillis, now a contrarian I guess, voted against it.) The provision could always come back in the “wraparound” amendment, but my guess is that provision will get ditched now.
Even the fiscal conservatives in the Senate are getting antsy. While a vote was promised to conservatives on rolling back the Obamacare Medicaid expansion to get them to vote for the motion to proceed, overnight that amendment dropped out, as it became clear that it would fail. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) initially voted against proceeding to the bill before getting that amendment promise, so he may not be totally secure.
Republicans made a little progress: They got a favorable ruling to keep Planned Parenthood defunding in the bill. And Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) gave up on an amendment that would have imposed income limits on farmers receiving federal subsidies. But they were so desperate to find 50 votes that they even tried to see what Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) would want to flip. His ask is to cut the debt limit increase to $500 billion, down from $5 trillion. That would barely cover a few months, and would force Republicans to negotiate with Democrats on another debt limit increase in this Congress. It’s a non-starter.
Here’s the bottom line: The parliamentarian is not done scrubbing the bill. There’s no final text, despite the series of amendment votes. Republicans clearly don’t have enough support to pass the bill yet, which is why special deals are being cut. And yet if Murkowski gets to yes, the bill, whatever it is, would pass.
Meanwhile, just about every building trades union, from NATBE to IBEW to the Iron Workers, have come out and said the bill would create an apocalypse in industrial construction. The new tax on wind and solar is sure to create a sudden stop to most energy additions to the grid, raising electricity rates and likely leading to rolling blackouts. The health care provisions are confirmed to be awful, to the extent that hospital groups in deep-red Louisiana are warning of “devastation.”
And this agita is just to get the bill through the Senate. There is no guarantee that this language can pass the House, and with Freedom Caucus stubbornness that prospect is looking unlikely at the moment.
We will update when there are new developments.
