The proposed maps that Californians will decide whether to adopt in an initiative this November were submitted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the national campaign arm for House Democrats. That may explain why the maps are as heavy on protecting vulnerable incumbents as they are eliminating five Republican seats to offset the expected maps in Texas that neutralize five Democrats.
But in some ways the two redrawn maps are similar. The Texas maps give support to their somewhat vulnerable members, of which there are few because the state’s initial gerrymander in 2022 prioritized incumbency protection. But a couple of threatened Democrats in Texas could survive their new districts, just as a couple of threatened Republicans in California could see their way through and win as well.
The big difference is that Democrats have to present these maps at the ballot, and therefore they needed to give the appearance of maintaining relatively compact districts, keeping cities and neighborhoods together, and altering the map drawn by an independent redistricting commission as minimally as possible. While Democrats are obviously seeking to fight the Texas map with a gerrymander of their own, it mostly doesn’t look like a gerrymander, which makes it easier to sell to voters.
The five Republican seats that are being diminished or just totally wiped out will offer opportunities to former members of Congress, promising candidates who have come up short in the past, and termed-out state legislators looking for a place to land. While the most likely outcome may be a gain of four seats, and Democrats will still have to defend a couple of incumbent seats in Orange County and the Central Valley, many of the swing-seat districts are put out of reach by this map, allowing the DCCC to plow more money to unseat the two Republicans thrown into lean-Democratic districts.
Many of the biggest changes are in the far north of the state. In CA-01, Republican Doug LaMalfa had a safe seat that radically shifted to add blue territory down to Santa Rosa while stretching east to the Nevada border. What was a district that went 61-35 for Trump now changed to a 54-42 Harris district. Mike McGuire, the current leader of the California state Senate, is termed out in 2026 but could run in that seat; the mikemcguireforcongress.com domain name has already been registered.
CA-03 was a somewhat competitive district won by Republican Kevin Kiley. That now takes in more blue Sacramento suburbs and becomes a Harris +11 district. It’s now bluer than Ami Bera’s CA-06 (which is Harris +9), and Bera is likely to switch to CA-03, which has a lot of his constituents, to take out Kiley. A new candidate would be needed to replace Bera.
To make this happen, safe Democratic seats like CA-02 (Jared Huffman), CA-04 (Mike Thompson), and CA-06 (Doris Matsui) got significantly redder, while still remaining safe. Meanwhile, Josh Harder’s CA-09 got a lot more Democratic turf in the Central Valley, taking it virtually off the table in 2026.
Adam Gray’s CA-13 only got marginally bluer, moving from a Trump +5 to a Harris +1 seat. The freshman Democrat will still need a lot of support to keep that seat. Jim Costa’s long-held CA-21 around Fresno got a little safer, up to Harris +6, but he may need help as well.
More on the Redistricting Wars
David Valadao is the third endangered Republican, but his CA-22 remains a Trump +2 seat. As The Downballot notes, that could have gotten bluer if some turf in the Salinas Valley was moved his way, but his neighbor to the west, Zoe Lofgren in CA-18, gave up none of her cities to maintain an ultra-safe Harris +29 district. That could come back to haunt Democrats next November. Assemblywoman Jasmeet Bains (who has taken criticism for fealty to Big Oil) and school district trustee Randy Villegas are already announced for this seat.
Other incumbents got protection in this map. Imperial Valley congressman Raul Ruiz (CA-25) went from Harris +2 to Harris +6. Freshman frontliner George Whitesides (CA-27) in northern Los Angeles County is now at Harris +10. Derek Tran (CA-45) in the Little Saigon section of Orange County bumps from Harris +1 to Harris +4; he may still need support. Nearby him, Dave Min (CA-47) is up to Harris +10, and Mike Levin in northern San Diego County gets up to Harris +12.
Ken Calvert’s district is obliterated, with CA-41 now moving into parts of Los Angeles County and shifting from Trump +6 to Harris +14. It now includes Whittier, where current CA-38 holder Linda Sánchez lives. CA-38, a relatively safe Harris +12 seat, could be taken by former Rep. Hilda Solis, who was Barack Obama’s labor secretary and now an L.A. County supervisor. Solis was present at the announcement of the special election for new maps on Thursday. Calvert could shift to the Republican vote sink of CA-40 now held by Young Kim, which includes some of his old district.
The final Republican target is Darrell Issa, whose San Diego County district is made bluer by reaching up to Palm Springs, which was once Calvert’s turf. It goes from Trump +15 to Harris +4, meaning that it’ll remain a fight to keep Issa, a car alarm mogul (his voice is on the Viper) who was once the richest man in Congress, out of the House.
Right now, three nondescript first-time candidates are challenging Issa (one of whom describes herself as “a witch”), but some prominent former candidates are eyeing the race: Will Rollins, a former prosecutor who lost narrowly to Calvert twice, and Ammar Campa-Najjar, a former Labor Department official and Navy Reserve officer who lost narrowly to Duncan Hunter and Issa in much more difficult terrain in 2018 and 2020, respectively. Campa-Najjar competed in the CA-48 swing cities of San Marcos and Escondido in the 2020 Issa race.
Taking five seats out of this will be a challenge, but Democrats will also have fewer seats to meaningfully defend. CA-13 (Gray), CA-22 (Valadao), CA-45 (Tran), and CA-48 (Issa) are the only true battlegrounds, with CA-21 (Costa) and CA-25 (Ruiz) competitive at the margins. The battlegrounds provide a range between Democrats picking up one seat to picking up five; the expected outcome would be closer to four seats, with the Valadao and Gray seats being the true swings.
But first, Democrats have to win the biggest race: the November 4 special election to institute these maps. Led by former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, California Republicans are plotting to raise up to $100 million for the campaign. Labor unions have already promised to do “whatever it takes” to win the election for the new maps, and Gov. Gavin Newsom has all but staked his future political career at the national level on what he is calling the Election Rigging Response Act.
If all goes as planned, the state legislature will place the measure on the ballot next week. There are likely to be court battles in both California and Texas if the new maps are instituted.