A few days ago, I noted that the fundamentals of this election are still on the president’s side. According to most models, Obama is projected to win a small majority of the vote on account of relative economic growth and a sufficiently high approval rating. On that note, political scientist Alan Abramowitz has released the first forecast from his “Time for Change” model, which uses June approval, second quarter GDP, and incumbency to project the president’s share of the two-party vote. Because of intense polarization in the electorate, Abramowitz added that as an additional variable.
Altogether, depending on economic growth, Obama should expect 50.2 percent to 50.8 percent of the two-party vote, which would amount to a moderate Electoral College victory. Here’s the chart:
The usual caveat—that this is a projection and not a prediction—applies. It suffices to say, however, that this should bolster the emerging conventional wisdom: The race hasn’t changed, and Obama is still a (very) slight favorite for winning the election.
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