This morning, I argued that President Obama’s poor performance in the New York Times/CBS News poll had more to do with the methodology of the survey than it did with any underlying change in Obama’s standing with the public. The Times oversampled partisan Republicans, and as such, guaranteed a skewed result. For further evidence of Obama’s stability, look no further than a trio of polls released today.
According to Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation poll—conducted by Public Policy Polling—Obama’s approval is at an even 48 percent, with 49 percent disapproval. In the latest Rasmussen survey, Obama performs similarly, with 49 percent approval to 51 percent disapproval. And in the Gallup tracking poll, Obama has an approval rating of 47 percent to a disapproval rating of 46 percent. Overall, according to the Pollster average, Obama’s approval rating remains steady at 47 percent and some change.
In other words, contra Chait, there hasn’t been a polling slump and the public isn’t reacting against the president’s rhetoric. To borrow Jonathan Bernstein’s point, it’s simply true that there are a lot of polls, and some of them are outliers.