Marriage-Equality Caution

When it comes to any issue, it's important to remember that there's no even distribution of support or opposition. A majority of Americans may support same-sex marriage, but that doesn't translate to a majority of people in a majority of states. In Virginia, for example, a new survey from the University of Mary Washington—which polled 1,004 adults living in the state—45 percent of respondents favored marriage equality, while 46 percent were opposed. This is a dramatic shift from seven years ago, when Virginians passed a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage, 57 percent to 43 percent.

It's worth noting that, in the last two presidential elections, public opinion in Virginia has tracked that for the country writ large. Barack Obama's 2008 margin in the state was just a point smaller than his margin overall, and his 2012 total in Virginia was nearly identical to his national performance. If, because of its demographics, Virginia is a nationally representative state, then this might be a sign of more modest support for same-sex marriage than advocates think.

Even if that's true, however, it's cause for optimism: If the tide is turning in a traditionalist place like the commonwealth, then it's already turned in many more areas of the country.