On Monday, I did a Bloggingheads with Religion Dispatches’ Sarah Posner discussing my recent piece on Democrats and demographics, as well as Latino evangelicals, and the questionable existence of a “Catholic vote”. We had a great discussion, and you should check it out:
We talked a bit about President Obama’s move on immigration, the implications of which are beginning to become apparent. One possibility, as Matt Taylor points out at Slate, is that this both increases Obama’s support among Latino voters, and drives up turnout. In which case, the electorate in November is browner than it otherwise would have been. This puts Romney in a difficult bind. If he isn’t going to capture a significant percentage of the Latino vote, then he needs to win a larger share of the white vote. In particular, he needs to reach Ronald Reagan levels of support among white voters. This isn’t impossible, but if economic conditions stay the same–or get slightly better—it isn’t likely either.
Which provides a nice segue to a larger point; despite the Romney campaign’s outsized confidence, and the press’ focus on Obama’s “bad month,” the actual fact is that the election has yet to move in either direction. The candidates are still (basically) tied, and as I said earlier this morning, Obama is still a slight favorite:
He maintains a slight edge of Romney, and if the election were a coin toss, he would have the better odds. All of this can change, and when voters begin to tune into the election this fall, it will. But, so far, despite the various gaffes and controversies, there hasn’t been any momentum in either direction.