An update to "Why Bernie May Have a Better Shot at Winning Than Hillary"
In the past, I've written that if Bernie Sanders were the Democratic nominee, Michael Bloomberg would enter the race and thereby win enough electoral votes to throw the election into the House, which, assuming it's still under Republican control, would elevate the GOP nominee-that is, Donald Trump or Ted Cruz-to the presidency. So why didn't I raise that possibility in assessing Bernie's strengths and weaknesses should he become the Democrats' nominee?
Chiefly because the one thing even Michael Bloomberg can't buy is time.
When Bloomberg announced last week that he wasn't going to run, one of the reasons behind his announcement-one he didn't articulate-was time. If he were going to become a candidate, he'd have to start the process of collecting signatures to get on various state ballots right away. Perceiving that Hillary Clinton would almost surely be the Democrats' choice, and not wishing to tilt a Clinton-Trump contest to Trump, he bowed out.
Clinton's path to the nomination has become longer and more tortuous in the wake of Sanders's Michigan victory, but she's still the prohibitive favorite. Looking at the delegate numbers, even if Sanders were to somehow overtake her, it wouldn't be until California votes in early June. By then, it would be too late for Bloomberg to change his mind. Indeed, even today, it may be too late for Bloomberg to change his mind.
The last gazillionaire to wage an independent campaign for the White House, Ross Perot, understood this perfectly. He declared his candidacy very early in the 1992 process and had time to collect the signatures to get his name on every state's ballot. Then he dropped out in mid-summer, announcing, in effect, that he thought Bill Clinton would be a good enough president. He re-entered the race in the fall-but he already had his name on the ballots because he'd secured his ballot lines in the spring.
Even if Bloomberg believes he could theoretically prevail in a three-way race against Trump and Sanders, he couldn't do it if his name wasn't on a host of different states' ballots. If a late Sanders surge causes him to rethink, it will be too late for him to run unless he's resigned to winning an insufficient number of states to get to 270 electoral votes. In which case, the election would almost surely be thrown to the House, and thence to Trump or Cruz-the very scenario he's stated he cannot in good conscience countenance.
