Last night’s Michigan Senate race has been described as AIPAC’s “biggest test,” because of the significant spending that pro-Israel PACs plowed into Haley Stevens’s campaign. But another test is around the corner: Can AIPAC single-handedly revive an also-ran candidate in a sleepy special election?
A runoff is taking place on August 18 for the Bay Area seat vacated by sex pest Eric Swalwell in California’s 14th Congressional District. The two candidates are state Sen. Aisha Wahab and Bay Area Rapid Transit board member Melissa Hernandez.
As Swalwell chose running for governor over running for re-election to Congress, Wahab and Hernandez have already faced each other twice in the past two months to fill the open seat; each time, Wahab has won by more than 20 points. But that hasn’t stopped nearly the entire constellation of pro-Israel super PACs from spending significant sums for a special election that would entitle the winner to serve in Congress for only four and a half months, until next January.
Winning the seat short-term could give the winner a boost, however, when the two candidates face one another again in November. (Under jungle primary rules, the top two finishers in the primary—Wahab and Hernandez—were both Democrats.)
In the June 2 top-two primary for the 14th District midterm, Wahab and Hernandez advanced from a field of nine to the November general election. But Wahab took 38.3 percent of the vote, compared to 17.2 percent for Hernandez. Two weeks after that, Wahab and Hernandez competed in the special election caused by Swalwell’s resignation, and they both advanced again to the August 18 runoff. This time, Wahab earned 42.8 percent of the vote to 16.8 percent for Hernandez.
Even after those dismal performances, however, the Hernandez money kept flowing. Financial disclosures indicate that since July 1, outside groups have spent $2.45 million on behalf of Hernandez in the race, compared to a little less than $200,000 for Wahab. Sources have told the Prospect that this is moving numbers in what is expected to be a low-turnout summer special election, and that the race is tightening.
Most of the outside money is coming from BOLD America, the super PAC set up by three former members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus (CHC). BOLD America has received $1.55 million this year from United Democracy Project, AIPAC’s super PAC. It has spent $1.485 million since July 15 on Hernandez, according to the Federal Election Commission. BOLD America also spent heavily for Rep. Adriano Espaillat, current chair of the CHC, in his ultimately unsuccessful re-election campaign against Darializa Avila Chevalier in New York.
United Democracy Project has itself spent over $850,000 on ads for Hernandez since the first round of the special election, per campaign finance reports. Hernandez was the only candidate in the race at an April forum to decline to say whether the war in Gaza was a genocide. “Israel had the right to defend itself after the terrorist attacks on October 7,” she said. “However, the destruction in Gaza has gone too far and the people are paying the cost, and so are the civilians.”
Smaller amounts of money are coming in from three pop-up PACs. Alameda Come Together PAC ($143,549 for Hernandez) is an affiliate of Crush MAGA PAC, which also spent on attack ads against Will Lawrence in Michigan’s Seventh Congressional District. Crush MAGA is itself affiliated with Save Democracy PAC (also known as SD PAC); both share the same address in Federal Election Commission disclosures. SD PAC has made a small ad buy of around $25,000 for Hernandez in the race. In May, SD PAC received $100,000 from United Democracy Project. Safer Alameda County PAC has spent $25,150 for Hernandez in the race; they are also affiliated with SD PAC.
American Democracy Project has spent another $83,000. Little is known about this PAC, which only formed on July 3.
Wahab’s outside support has come from the state’s leading labor organization, from the leadership PAC of Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), and from the PAC for the Congressional Progressive Caucus.
“AIPAC is once again trying to sneak under the radar and buy a Democratic primary,” said Evan Brown, executive director of the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC. “These millions of dollars in deceptive smears come from a pro-Netanyahu, pro-war super PAC funded by MAGA Republican donors, targeting a state senator endorsed by the California Democratic Party and labor unions across California’s 14th District.”
A “red box” on Hernandez’s campaign website lists a number of potential angles of attack against Wahab, including a claim that she weakened felony charges for solicitation of 16- and 17-year-olds. Wahab has countered that she actually voted to expand eligibility for criminal prosecution for such solicitations, and as chair of the Public Safety Committee in the state Senate, she co-authored the bill that made sex trafficking of minors a serious felony, and even received praise for that from committee Republicans.
“Our opponent has lost both primaries by more than 20 points,” Wahab’s campaign said in a statement on the campaign website. “Instead of running on a record of results, she is relying on misleading attacks and AIPAC-linked dark-money PACs to tear Aisha Wahab down.”
It is not only outside spending that has seen a boost since the special election’s first round. Despite having only $91,201 in cash on hand as of June 30, Hernandez has been able to spend over $570,000 on TV and cable in the last month.
Hernandez was among more than a dozen Democratic candidates who raised money last month in Los Angeles for yet another super PAC, Elect Democratic Women. One of Elect Democratic Women’s affiliates, Pro-Choice Majority Action, ran ads for Hernandez back in May, and it has also taken hundreds of thousands of dollars from AIPAC and other pro-Israel groups during this election cycle. Eleven current and former members of Congress appeared at the fundraiser.
During the race, Hernandez has taken more than $128,000 in direct contributions from AIPAC donors, including $1,000 from AIPAC president Amy Friedkin, as well as donations from board members Donna Bender ($1,000), Jan Zakowski ($1,500), Jonathan Wornick ($500), and Victor Kohn ($3,500). Despite this, Hernandez has told local media that “she is not tied to any pro-Israel interests.”
This de facto reunion tour for pro-Israel PACs and recipients of their money seems at first glance to be destined to fail, given the large numbers by which Wahab has already prevailed in her head-to-head matchups against Hernandez, and the labor-led get-out-the-vote organizing likely at Wahab’s disposal. But special elections are unpredictable, especially in the middle of summer when lots of voters are checked out. The spending blitz could catch everyone napping and generate just enough juice to get Hernandez into Congress, which could give her an incumbency advantage when she faces Wahab all over again in November.
