It seems that yet another big-name Republican will be foregoing a senate campaign two years hence, in this case, Ohio's own Senator George Voinovich. The others are Florida's Mel Martinez (where Jeb Bush is declining to run), Missouri's Kit Bond and Kansas' Sam Brownback. Phil Singer's analysis after Bush declined to run is still operative:
The heads of the congressional campaign committees spend the first year of the campaign cycle recruiting candidates. The successful ones keep prospective candidates who are attractive but reluctant to run from making any kind of decision for as long as possible. The logic behind doing so is to keep the candidate open to running in case the political environment shifts or something happens that changes the person's mind and gets him/her into the race.
Jeb Bush's decision to announce that he's not running is a knock on Sen. Cornyn because it means that he failed to keep Bush in the on deck circle. The prospect of a marquee candidate like Bush running in Florida would have been a sign to GOP candidates in other states that 2010 might be a good year for them to run.
So despite worries (or expectations setting) from some Democrats about the electoral challenges Democrats face in 2010, their Senate map is looking cleaner and cleaner; given the potential for competitive races in states like Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, Missouri and Pennsylvania and not too much worry about defending incumbents -- Colorado has to be a concern, but rumors of Harry Reid's political death have been greatly exaggerated. As Singer notes, there simply aren't a lot of good role models for less-well-known Republicans seeking to enter a Senate race.
But the really interesting aspect of this decision comes in the here-and-now. Voinovich has a tendency to fall into the more moderate camp of senate Republicans, voicing skepticism on everything from tax cuts to John Bolton's nomination as Ambassador to the United Nations. With reelection looming, the need to firm up party and interest group support usually has politicians looking more like ideologues. Now, though, with his political career coming to a close, the 72-year-old Voinovich will be more likely to vote his conscience -- and more receptive to arguments from Harry Reid and Barack Obama on issues like stimulus legislation, health care or even card check. Nothing like a little bipartisan legislative compromise to cement the legacy of a man who's been working in Ohio politics since 1963.
-- Tim Fernholz
