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To follow up on Dana's post, a few quick points:
- Public opinion on abortion has been remarkably stable not only for the last decade but since at least the early '70s. (Craig and O'Brien is a good source for pre-1995 data.) As Dana says, the direction of public opinion has been solidly pro-choice, although marginal regulations on abortion tend (regrettably) to be very popular. So barring a much more sustained trend, it is indeed pretty safe to assume that the latest Pew and Gallup surveys are outliers.
- One should be particularly wary about poll questions, like the Gallup survey, that ask people to choose between abortion being legal in "most" or "a few" circumstances. Leaving aside the vagueness, the obvious problem is that for the most part such a question is irrelevant to legislative enactments. Abortion restrictions can't ensure that abortions are obtained for "good reasons"; they have to be legal, or not. Regulations can make it harder for some classes of women to obtain abortions -- they make it harder for poor, rural women to obtain abortions regardless of the circumstances, and place much less burden on affluent, urban women regardless of the circumstances. At any rate, the fact that the Gallup survey for the most part avoids concrete and specific policy questions makes the implications of its findings much less clear. (And note that less than a quarter of the population favors a ban on abortion even in a poll where a majority describes itself as "pro-life.")
- Speaking of concrete questions, for some reason polling firms often don't ask about Roe v. Wade. When they do, however, note that there are always substantial majorities in favor of upholding it.
