I've been rather concerned about the resignation of Ali Larijani from his position as Iran's chief nuclear negotiator. Larijani's a sane type, and known to have the ear of Khameini, so his exit suggested, I feared, a shift in Khameini's thinking to a stance more closely approximating Ahmadinejad's. Tony Karon, however, offers an interesting alternative thesis:
the Tehran political scientist Kaveh L. Afrasiabi offered an intriguing explanation in Asia Times — one that reads the political significance of the change quite differently. He suggests that the move obviously reveals a state of open political warfare between the president and Larijani, but that Larijani continues to enjoy the confidence of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In fact, when nuclear talks with EU chief Javier Solana resume on Tuesday with Jalili in Larijani’s old role, Larijani will still be present, according to Iranian officials, “as the representative of the Supreme Leader of the Revolution.”
If so, then far from throwing his weight behind Ahmadinejad, the Supreme Leader may instead be empowering the opponents of the president who are making clear that they can't work under him. Ahmadinejad was reportedly enraged that President Vladimir Putin presented Russia's new offer not only to the president, but also went over his head and presented it directly to Supreme Leader Khamenei. (Ahmadinejad has since denied that an offer was made, which seems a little ridiculous since not only Larijani, but the Supreme Leader himself had acknowledged that Russia had indeed made a proposal which Iran would study and respond to.)
Iran's a bit opaque, so I have no idea how to evaluate the relative truth of this thesis. certainly seems plausible, though. And evidence of a slit between Ahmadinejad and Khameini would be good news indeed. As we learned with Ahmadinejd's reformist predecessor, when the Supreme Leader feels like kneecapping the president, he can
