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This accurately expresses a few of the many reasons I don't think Obama is a lock:
In a general, Obama won't be running against Clinton, he'll be running against McCain, a politician that has actually taken political risks and endured the wrath of party hacks in order to make progress on real issues: "What has Obama done? Show me a single issue or piece of legislation where Obama has done something politically unpopular in order to move forward toward a greater goal." I pointed out that this argument hasn't made much of a difference so far. Ah, replied the adviser, "That's because Clinton can't show that she's done it, either." What's more, he said, the press will stop giving Obama a free ride in the general. McCain will be out there, holding court on his bus or his plane, providing unfettered access to both reporters and voters, and journalists will no longer be able to ignore Obama's lack of access and lack of interaction with real people. In fact, it'll be the only thing they talk about.Obama's allergy to taking questions -- both from the press and from voters -- is actually an undercovered part of this campaign. Where Clinton does townhalls, Obama holds rallies. Where McCain constantly hangs out with reporters, Obama has little to do with them. They like him, to be sure, but if they continue to feel frozen out, that could change. This is part of what made Frank Rich's column this week so weird. He was attacking Clinton for a somewhat cheesy, rather scripted "townhall" where, at the least, she answered questions. Obama, by contrast, doesn't even offer those. Awhile back, the blogosphere had a term that went something like, IOKIYAR, or "it's okay if you're a Republican." I've been thinking that there should really be "INOKIYHC," or "it's not okay if you're Hillary Clinton." All that said, the polling really does suggest that Obama has an advantage against McCain in the general, and in my off-the-record conversations with professional conservatives, they seem unanimously afraid of Obama. It's not so much that they're sure he can win (and none deny the possibility that he could lose), but they're definitely not sure how they can beat him, and they fear he has the potential to win big. With Clinton, by contrast, they feel they know how to attack her, and don't worry about anything game-changing.
