Today I wrote about Rahm Emanuel's role in the Democratic Party, on the occasion of his probable departure from Washington (you've got to get ahead of these things). One debate I did not take up was the tempestuous one about his recruiting practices as the House Democrats' political kaiser. Emanuel is known for leaning toward purple Democrats in purple districts, while progressive activists seek like-minded candidates who could turn purple districts blue by dint of activating new voters and shaking moderates out of their apathy toward both parties -- here's a good example of this argument; funny that Darcy Burner was then considered one of Emanuel's bad picks.
Unfortunately, it's tough to test this hypothesis, mainly because in most cases, Emanuel's nominee won out, making the counterfactual hard to prove. This is especially difficult in comparison, since DCCC support, while distributed unevenly, went to all candidates, and here conservative Democrats lost; a tough fight in those districts weakened Republicans nationally by denying them the luxury of targeting their resources at a few vulnerable districts.
Today, though, we have Alan Grayson, every progressive's favorite House member, whose unabashed progressivism has made him something of a prophetic voice in the Democratic Party, unafraid to mince words with his own leadership or Republicans where progressive values are concerned. Progressive activists point to him as an example for equivocating Democrats: If you run ads like this, confront Republicans like this, and generally don't beat around the bush, you can win, even in a Republican District -- thanks to his national profile, Grayson has been able to raise more than 10 times as much money as his opponent, $3.7 million to $313,000.
But now the only independent poll of the race has come out, Grayson is down seven points. This is only one poll, so you really can't draw any conclusions from it; Grayson's internal polling has him enjoying a 13-point lead. Regardless of the outcome, this race will be a bellwether in the internal debate among Democrats; a big defeat for Grayson will be seen as a sign that some concessions to the moderate and conservative electorate are necessary for Democrats to win in mixed districts, while a close loss (this is a terrible climate for any Democrat, after all) or a win will be a vindication for progressives who want, as Grayson's slogan puts it, "Courage. Truth. Guts."
-- Tim Fernholz
