The socialists are in; the conservatives are out. Three days after a terrorist attack in Madrid killed 200 people, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party won the national elections, receiving more votes than the successor chosen by former Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar. Ivo Daalder, 44, a Brookings Institution senior fellow and the co-author of America Unbound: The Bush Revolution in Foreign Policy, explains what the Spanish election could mean for Americans.
What effect will the Spanish elections have on Bush?
Bush had a very, very close relationship with Aznar -- as underscored by the fact that when he made his first presidential trip to Europe, his first stop was Madrid. He used to point to Aznar as a way to justify what he was doing in terms of foreign policy. He'd say, more or less, "Here's a man who supports me, even though 90 percent of his population is against what we're doing in Iraq. What a strong, principled leader." But the fact that 90 percent of the people did not support Aznar led to his downfall. So the defeat of one of the staunchest members of the "coalition of the willing" is a major defeat for George Bush. The Spanish election was a referendum not only on Aznar but on Bush as well. They both lost.
What will happen to the Bush administration's plans for Iraq when (or if?) Spain withdraws its troops from that country?
First, it's not clear whether or not Spain will withdraw its troops. It would take astute American diplomacy to internationalize the foreign presence in Iraq, but Zapatero has indicated that the Spanish government would continue its support in that scenario. Second, if Madrid does withdraw its troops, the impact will be marginal at best. The Spanish troops make up just one percent of the total troops that are there. The important issue is the political one -- not the military one.
If Spain does pull out, what will happen to the other major U.S. allies in Iraq -- Britain, Poland, and Italy? Will it change the relationship they have with the United States?
The role of Spain demonstrates the fragility of relying on a "coalition of the willing." If one member pulls away, the others begin to panic. And in some cases, the coalition becomes less cohesive. Still, Britain is not going to pull out. Poland is not going to pull out. Unless an opposition party makes Iraq the central issue of an election campaign, their country is not likely to see a change in its policy. In the case of Britain, for example, the conservative opposition favors staying in Iraq as much as the government does. In other words, Spain is an unusual case.
Does being closely associated with the Bush administration mean you can lose an election?
This is the third election of a major ally in which the party running against George Bush won. Look at Germany in '02, South Korea in '03, and now Spain. The message is: If you want to get re-elected, don't go to Crawford. Bush is a political liability -- in Europe, in particular. His foreign policy has trampled on the European views and it's now resulting in the election of governments that do not support his approach.
You say foreign leaders shouldn't go to Crawford. What's your advice for Bush?
My advice to Bush is, "Start paying attention to your allies." Coalitions of the willing may have short-term benefits in terms of effectiveness in Iraq (for example), but they have long-term problems in terms of legitimacy. Being right is not the only thing that matters. And getting other countries to commit to you has benefits.
The new Spanish prime minister says that Iraq is a disaster and Bush should "reflect and engage in some self-criticism so things like that don't happen again." How likely is it that this will happen?
Not likely at all. Bush is so confident about his own stance that he doesn't need to reflect on this. The attitude is, "I'm right -- so why bother?"
Will the Spanish elections -- and their leaders' defiance of Bush -- create a more united Europe and possibly change its relationship with the United States?
The nature of the U.S.-European relationship is not going to change because of the Spanish elections. It was bad before; it'll be bad after.
Tara McKelvey is a senior editor at The American Prospect.
