One idea making the rounds is that Barack Obama's foreign policy is likely to be a continuation George W. Bush's second-term approach to world affairs. People come by this observation after noticing that Bush didn't solve his international problems, so Obama will have to tackle nearly the same portfolio, and because Obama has retained Defense Secretary Robert Gates. Unfortunately, these signs aside, most of these arguments are being made by former administration types happy to traffic in generalizations and avoid distinctions as they try to burnish the one-day-left incumbent's legacy, and generally stretch the truth so far as to be ludicrous. Let's take an example, shall we:
Another part of this strategy for Obama is continuing Bush's engagement on the Middle East peace process. A real insight of Bush's first term had been that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was more than a border dispute, as Bill Clinton had framed it. Bush argued that peace required a successful Palestinian state and economy. But the first-term policy amounted to telling the Palestinians to put their house in order first, and then the United States would talk about ending the Israeli occupation. Only in the second term were both efforts pursued simultaneously. And because of it, Obama will inherit a Middle East peace process finally proceeding on both tracks at once: state-building and peacemaking.
I'm sure we can all agree that state-building and peacemaking are the two words that most correctly define the Israeli-Palestinian conflict right now. And of course for most of its existance, the Bush administration's desultory engagement in this conflict has set new records for lack of energy.
So no, I don't think these arguments hold much water. For instance, Obama has confirmed that on Wednesday he will ask military commanders to begin withrawing from Iraq. And those commanders aren't even waiting to be asked:
Military commanders are drawing up plans for a faster withdrawal of American troops from Iraq in anticipation that President-elect Barack Obama will reject current proposals as too slow, Pentagon and military officials said Wednesday.
Obama will likely reject the current administration's withdrawal proposals in favor of a speedier approach. It just goes to show you: The more things change, the more they ... change.
-- Tim Fernholz
