If I were to make a list of red states that Obama had an outside chance of winning, North Carolina would be on it, as would Montana, and maybe even the Dakotas and Georgia. But West Virginia wouldn't have even crossed my mind:
A new poll from Mark Blankenship Enterprises shows Sen. John McCain with a five point lead over Sen. Barack Obama in West Virginia, 44% to 39% with another 17% still undecided.What's interesting here is the timing. This poll was conducted at the same time as a number of others showing McCain surging, both nationally and in the states. Just yesterday, SurveyUSA put McCain 20 points ahead in North Carolina, though PPP found it to be a lot closer. But just as the national trend's in McCain's direction, he's faltering in West Virginia, a state that Obama lost to Clinton by 40 points for pretty transparently racial reasons.
What accounts for this? It could be that, as Ben Smith says, targeting WV is easy because Virginia and Ohio advertising already reaches 60% of the state; paying for the other 40% shouldn't be too hard for Obama. But could the Palin and Biden picks have also pushed this in Obama's direction? I'm not suggesting sexism necessarily; after all, Clinton had no trouble winning the state, and she's been subjected to far more and far more persistent sexist attacks than Palin. But it seems like the disparity between a comfortable old hand and an inexperienced newcomer as VP couldn't have been inconsequential in a state where Clinton supporters said they'd back McCain mainly based on his experience.
Maybe I'm reading too much into one poll, and perhaps it's an outlier, but it's an interesting result nonetheless.
