I don't think Michael Crowley's read of the ARG poll's trend lines is quite right. It's not so much that "Clinton's ARG lead over Obama in New Hampshire has also soared," it's that Obama's position in the poll has plummeted. Take December out of the the equation, as it's both the oldest month and, by far, the lowest for Clinton, suggesting it's a possible outlier. Over the past four months, she's held steady between 39% and 37%, a two percent swing. Obama has dropped from a high of 23% in March to 14% in April, a nine percent loss. And Edwards has risen from 13% in January to 26% now, a 13 percent improvement. So what you're seeing is an apparently durable lead for Clinton, significant downward motion for Clinton, and serious improvement for Edwards.
