William Smith asks, "Wyden's health bill and the cap-and-trade greenhouse gas bill are going to have to wait on Bush to leave office but the Senate is also the major hold-up. How will these bills be affected by the projected new class of Senators, hopefully mostly Democrats, elected in 2008?" It depends who you ask, but estimates are that Democrats will win anything from three to eight Senate seats this year. Most folks think four or five, and people I know are becoming increasingly optimistic. The reasoning is twofold. First, the numbers suck for Republicans. They're defending 23 seats, while Democrats are on the hook for only 12. They're also enduring a rash of retirements, seeing sluggish fundraising, fighting a bad economy, and uncertain about Obama's registration and organizing advantages. Worse, polls are putting races that they thought were safe into contested territory. A recent poll showed the Democrat up by a point to replace Trent Lott in Mississippi. A Survey USA poll, released today, showed minority leader Mitch McConnell ahead by a mere four points in Kentucky. So, suffice to say, things look bad for the Republicans. How much this matters depend on how many seats Democrats win. if they hit that holy grail of 60, all bets are off, and America is getting gay married tomorrow. If they get to 56, or 57, or 58, then a united Republican caucus could still block legislation. The question is whether they'll want to.
