By Ezra
From Hotline's quotes of the day:
"Setting August primary dates is the most self-destructive thing a political establishment can do." (pollster Thomas Riehle, e-mail)
Markos calls this stupid, but I think he misunderstands Reihle's point. Summer months are the hottest, with the highest gas prices, and the most violence (both at home and overseas). Political discontent always peaks in August, then drifts downwards as the weather, the energy market, and the insurgents calm. For that reason, August primaries maximize the chance that your incumbent candidates will be defeated. That said, the relative rarity with which such defeats occur is evidence that the power of incumbency tend to easily overwhelm the effects of Summer, but that doesn't invalidate Riehle's point.
