Over in The Politico, Jim VandeHei and John Harris channel the Clintons' private case against Barack Obama. One of the arguments they relate is what could be called the WYSIWYG theory: "Clinton has her own baggage, to put it mildly. But it’s been rummaged through for years, so what Democrats see is pretty much what they would get." Conversely, Obama is an unknown quantity, who knows what career-ending stories reporters will find!It is true that there's probably relatively little in Clinton's past that hasn't been picked over, though as the Other Klein says, "the buckraking that former President Clinton has done in countries like Kazakhstan and Colombia" may prove damaging. But in reality, the only revelations that seem politically salient are those uncovering infidelity -- and even then, the candidate being lambasted (like former President Bill Clinton) often wins. Conversely, Harken, Halliburton, draft-dodging, "not inhaling," drunk driving, and all the other "baggage" uncovered in the past few years barely registered on the political radar. What tends to damage major national politicians aren't revelations so much as gaffes and campaign errors and bad votes, and there's no reason to think Clinton, Obama, or McCain, will prove immune to such mistakes. Already we've seen Mark Penn meeting with the Colombians, Clinton hyping her visit to Kosovo, and voting for the Iraq War and versions of the Bankruptcy Bill; already we've seen John McCain promise 100 years of war, plead ignorance about the economy, and greenlight Bush's entire agenda; already we've seen Obama act all blue state when speaking off-the-cuff, watched his advisers call Clinton a "monster," and simply miss tough votes like Kyl-Lieberman. None of these campaigns have shown themselves immune from in-the-moment errors. But if you go back through recent Democratic candidacies, the only example I can think of where a likely contender tanked after a musty skeleton tumbled from the closet is Gary Hart, and it's not as if turning to Michael Dukakis that year looks, in retrospect, like some lightning bolt of strategic brilliance. So let's stop pretending that a long history in the public eye is somehow an easy path to the presidency. If that were true, than Presidents Kerry, Gore, and Mondale would be around to let us know.(Photo used under a Creative Commons license from Flickr user Digiart2001.) BAGGAGE.
Over in The Politico, Jim VandeHei and John Harris channel the Clintons' private case against Barack Obama. One of the arguments they relate is what could be called the WYSIWYG theory: "Clinton has her own baggage, to put it mildly. But it’s been rummaged through for years, so what Democrats see is pretty much what they would get." Conversely, Obama is an unknown quantity, who knows what career-ending stories reporters will find!It is true that there's probably relatively little in Clinton's past that hasn't been picked over, though as the Other Klein says, "the buckraking that former President Clinton has done in countries like Kazakhstan and Colombia" may prove damaging. But in reality, the only revelations that seem politically salient are those uncovering infidelity -- and even then, the candidate being lambasted (like former President Bill Clinton) often wins. Conversely, Harken, Halliburton, draft-dodging, "not inhaling," drunk driving, and all the other "baggage" uncovered in the past few years barely registered on the political radar. What tends to damage major national politicians aren't revelations so much as gaffes and campaign errors and bad votes, and there's no reason to think Clinton, Obama, or McCain, will prove immune to such mistakes. Already we've seen Mark Penn meeting with the Colombians, Clinton hyping her visit to Kosovo, and voting for the Iraq War and versions of the Bankruptcy Bill; already we've seen John McCain promise 100 years of war, plead ignorance about the economy, and greenlight Bush's entire agenda; already we've seen Obama act all blue state when speaking off-the-cuff, watched his advisers call Clinton a "monster," and simply miss tough votes like Kyl-Lieberman. None of these campaigns have shown themselves immune from in-the-moment errors. But if you go back through recent Democratic candidacies, the only example I can think of where a likely contender tanked after a musty skeleton tumbled from the closet is Gary Hart, and it's not as if turning to Michael Dukakis that year looks, in retrospect, like some lightning bolt of strategic brilliance. So let's stop pretending that a long history in the public eye is somehow an easy path to the presidency. If that were true, than Presidents Kerry, Gore, and Mondale would be around to let us know.(Photo used under a Creative Commons license from Flickr user Digiart2001.) 
