by Nicholas Beaudrot of Electoral Math
I want to make it very clear that this is not part of any effort here at Unofficial Edwards Central to sow doubt on the hypothetical Obama candidacy (which currently looks more than hypothetical; I mean, why else have the Sun write a four-pager on your foreign policy advisers?). I don't have an axe to grind with any of the candidates at this point; I think they all might make good Presidents (including Hillary, though obviously the further left-of-center your personal politics are, the less appealing President Hillary is). But I would like to take an as-dispassionate-as-possible look at the Presidential electoral map, to see what the value ad of an Obama candidacy would be from a tactical electoral standpoint. Does he expand the offensive map? Can he put competitive blue states out of Republican reach? Or is the Obama effect actually quite small? For purposes, I've split states into seven categories based on their competitiveness in 2004:
- Midnight Blue: HI, CA, IL, NY, DC, MD, CT, VT, MA, RI, ME (154 Electoral Votes)
- Royal Blue: WA, DE, NJ, (29 EVs)
- Pale Blue: OR, MN, MI, (34 EVs)
- Purple: NM, IA, WI, OH, PA, NH (67 EVs)
- Pale red: NV, CO, FL (41 EVs)
- Ruby red: AZ, MO, VA (34 EVs)
- Crimson red: AK, ID, MT, UT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, AR, LA, TN, MS, AL, KY, IN, WV, GA, NC, SC (179 EVs)
Further, a look at the Bush's November approval ratings shows Ohio, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, and Arkansas as the red states most unhappy with Bush. So keep that in mind.
- What blue states turn a deeper shade of blue?
- What red states turn a lighter shade of red?
- Is there any backlash that causes some blue states to become lighter blue, or red states to become deeper red?
Assume McCain does not win the nomination (since McCain changes the map dramatically). This is a discussion thread. Kick start it with my answers below.
