I'm definitely, and often problematically, an optimist. That said, I'm becoming radically more pessimistic about 2006 with each passing day. As things stand, I'd bet against Democrats capturing either chamber.
Update: So long as we're categorizing prognosticators, Ed Kilgore mentions "the generation gap," wherein political watchers under 40 see rather marginal or moderate Democratic gains in the offing, while older observers are preparing for an earthquake. I can't speak for the codgers, but the young watchers being profiled mostly came of age in the Clinton and Bush eras, where the record is one of Democratic underperforming and Republicans routinely exceeding expectations.
There's a belief among this set -- one that I certainly share -- that Republicans have fundamental advantages and proficiencies that, as someone put it, make them better at the basic blocking and tackling of elections. We're talking things like fundraising, media savvy, microtargeting, superior deployment of wedge issues, and better GOTV strategies that allow them to blunt Democratic momentum and accelerate their own. Maybe, hopefully, that's been an optical illusion, and the two parties are equally vulnerable, with Republicans enjoying a string of favorable circumstances and good luck. Maybe. Hopefully.
