Fundamentally, Baucus's health policy plan is a political document. So it would, on some level, be irresponsible not to speculate on the politics of it. Right? Right! There are a couple things going on here. I can't say if they're intended or not. It's possible that the whole political strategy is fairly inchoate on Baucus's part, and putting out a plan just seemed the logical next step. But I doubt it. Here, in any case, are the immediate ramifications of his proposal. As a caveat to this post, many of these might not come true. They just seem to be the path the strategy envisions: The first and most obvious impact is on Baucus's stature. He just moved from Possible Player to Player. He's first out of the gate with a health reform plan. His position as chair of the Senate Finance Committee means his priorities are more than mere preference or moral exhortation: They are actionable. He controls the relevant committee, and if he decides it's doing health care, then it's doing health care. That's not to say he won't come to some sort of accommodation with Obama's preferences on sequencing, but it will be an accommodation that recognizes Baucus's agenda, too. The dude's got power. Moreover, Baucus just signaled to his colleagues, his committee members, his party's president-elect, and everyone else that he means to take the lead on heath reform. This is inextricably tied up in Ted Kennedy's condition. If Kennedy were at full strength, there's no doubt that Uncle Ted would have a central role in any health reform fight. If he comes back even at half strength, he'll have a central role. But the honest and sad truth is that no one in Washingotn is hearing very good things about Kennedy's condition, and expectations among most reformers I speak to is that his role is, at best, uncertain. He may be the guiding sage and the moral force behind the next health reform fight, but few expect him to be able to take point on the legislative work.
