After the pummeling they took on November 2, Democrats consoled themselves that history would be on their side in 2006 -- midterm elections normally spell congressional gains for the party out of power in the White House. Sure, that axiom didn't apply in 2002, nor in 1998 … but it's a rule, damn it, and Dems clung to it as the election-night horror show unfolded before their eyes.
On the Senate side, alas, the makeup of the seats that will be in play two years from now gives Democrats scant cause for hope. Among the 17 Democratic and 15 Republican seats up in the '06 cycle, one is hard-pressed to find a plausible way for Dems to reach a net gain of six (enough to take back power). “I don't think they have a great chance to take back the majority” in two years, says Jennifer Duffy, managing editor and Senate campaign analyst for The Cook Political Report. She's quick to offer consolation: “But that doesn't mean that they can't cut into the Republicans' majority.”
To be sure, the terrain will be friendlier to Democrats than it was this past cycle, in which the party put up an impressive fight in the face of a slew of open-seat races in red states. In '06, it's very unlikely that Democrats will be on the defensive as much; they won't have many opportunities to go on the offensive either.
Of the 17 Dem incumbents up for reelection in two years, eight are first-term senators, who lack some of the advantages that accrue to entrenched incumbency. Of those eight, the ones that should face real Republican challenges are Senator Mark Dayton of Minnesota (Representative Mark Kennedy is itching to take him on); Senator Maria Cantwell of Washington (the challenger will likely be current gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi, if he loses the protracted vote count still underway in that race); and, as Duffy likes to call them, “the Nelsons -- Ben and Bill,” of Nebraska and Florida, respectively. Senator Ben Nelson will likely face a challenge from Nebraska's popular governor, Mike Johanns. Senator Bill Nelson has slightly less reason to worry, particularly if the Republicans nominate Representative Katherine Harris to take him on. But the Florida GOP has become a force to be reckoned with, and they don't lack for viable potential challengers.
Among the 15 GOP incumbents, it's tough to name a single particularly vulnerable candidate residing in a red state; Virginia's George Allen might be one if, and only if, Governor Mark Warner decides to challenge him. Of the three blue-state Republicans – Senators Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, Olympia Snowe of Maine, and Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania -- only Mr. Man-On-Dog seems ripe for a real fight. (Snowe is prohibitively popular in Maine, and Chafee's real fear is a primary challenge from a conservative -- though the Club for Growth, for one, has made it known that it will not fund a challenger.) As Duffy puts it, “there's a long list” of potential challengers to Santorum, the early odds going to Pennsylvania Treasurer Barbara Hafer.
Given the stable playing field, the “key in the '06 cycle is retirements,” says Duffy. Unfortunately, that might not work to the Democrats' advantage. The one certain retirement -- Bill Frist's in Tennessee -- will definitely present an opportunity for them, with several plausible challengers interested in running. (Representative Harold Ford Jr., leads the pack.) And the long-predicted retirement of Senator Trent Lott, should it finally come to pass in two years, might actually provide for a close race in Mississippi, of all places. But if Senator Orrin Hatch retires, can the Dems field a serious challenger in blood-red Utah? If Senator Richard Lugar calls it quits, can a Democrat win in Indiana? If Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison decides to run for governor in Texas, might the Democrats have a shot at taking her seat? It's possible but doubtful.
Meanwhile, six Dems up for reelection in 2006 will be older than 70 that year, and several more will be getting close. The granddaddy of them all, 87-year-old Senator Robert Byrd of West Virginia, is definitely running for reelection, according to Duffy. But the prospect of remaining in the minority for at least several more years may weigh on the minds of some of the others. “I'm wondering if that impacts someone like [New Mexico's Senator Jeff] Bingaman or [California's Senator Dianne] Feinstein, just that thought,” says Duffy. “Will they sign up for another six years knowing that there probably aren't committee chairmanships in their future?”
The biggest fear of all is that if, as seems likely, the Democrats remain in the minority through at least 2008, more and more senators will come to share that same thought and will contemplate alternative routes to power and stature. The spectacle of two Democratic senators simultaneously considering gubernatorial bids -- Jon Corzine in New Jersey and Chris Dodd in Connecticut -- is hardly a good omen. As our Prez might say, pessimism never created a Senate majority.
Sam Rosenfeld is a Prospect web writer.
