Obama's lead, or lack thereof, has been a topic of concern in the blogosphere of late: Given the favorable environment for Democrats, why isn't he leading by more than single digits in the polls? Marc Ambinder's take seems pretty spot on to me, especially his last point about people paying attention: Despite all the hype about Obama and McCain, it's still relatively early in the election season. Congressional primaries are only beginning to happen around the country, but you'll see more attention to the Presidential races when local and state-wide races pick up.
When September and October roll around, after the conventions and into the debate season, we'll have a much more accurate assessment of where the race stands as more people start to tune in to politics in general. One error that I do see in Ambinder's post: He says Obama isn't much of a counterpuncher. What? Say what you will about conventional wisdom, the popular view that Obama is better reacting than attacking seems true. Finally, Ambinder forgets that much of Obama's resources are invested in efforts who'se payoffs we won't know 'till November. His field program isn't likely to show up in today's polling, but is probably worth 2-3 percent on election day in targeted states. Obama partisans shouldn't freak out yet.
UPDATE: Commenter Sniflheim wonders about McCain's ground operation. Josh Marshall's source here says it doesn't exist.
--Tim Fernholz
