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THE OTHER BIG LOSER IN LEBANON: AMERICA. The argument about whether Israel or Hezbollah won their summer war goes on, but everyone agrees that the Lebanese people were the big losers. The image of the United States also took a pounding in Lebanon, according to the initial findings of the latest Gallup World Poll (annoyingly not available on their lousy website because it's proprietary). Gallup compared results from August 2005 to late September/early October 2006, about a month after the fighting ended.
Wonder of wonders, most Lebanese aren't too happy that the Bush administration delayed a UN ceasefire in the vain hope that Israel would crush Hezbollah decisively. A year ago, 39 percent of Lebanese had favorable views of the U.S. and 42 percent held unfavorable opinions. In the new poll, the breakdown is 59 percent unfavorable compared to 28 percent favorable. Half of that 59 is in the "very negative" category. 64 percent of those sampled say their attitude toward the U.S. is worse than it was before the war, and 24 percent said our country was mostly to blame for the fighting (a plurality, 40 percent, blamed Israel). Somehow, I don't think touting our progress in picking up the cluster bombs that we manufactured and sold to Israel will make much of a dent in these dismal numbers.
As Daniel Byman and Steven Simon observe in the current issue of The National Interest (sub. req'd), Iraq wasn't the only place the Bush administration failed to fill a power vacuum. The Bush administration wisely joined hands with the dastardly France at the UN in order to pressure the Syrians to withdraw their military after the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. After that, we didn't rush in with substantial money and other aid in order to marginalize Syrian influence, nor did we help in resolving border issues like the Sheba'a Farms. Then this past summer, the Bush administration unwisely dawdled on French efforts to broker a ceasefire, while the pro-Western government of Fouad Seniora was exposed as powerless--to the glee of Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah. After the war, Hezbollah hit the ground running with piles of Iranian cash for rebuilding, while the West held meetings and struggled to put together a peacekeeping coalition that is more farce than force.
We're now playing catch-up on the aid, but Lebanon is reeling from a government crisis. The Shi'ite ministers resigned from the cabinet when talks on forming a national unity government broke down, and Hezbollah is threatening to hold street demonstrations in protest. So far, Seniora is holding firm and is going ahead with an international tribunal over Hariri's death, but he has to wonder what kind of tangible help he will get from the U.S. in the event that Hezbollah makes good on its increasingly credible threats. Would you trust George Bush with your country?
--Blake Hounshell
Wonder of wonders, most Lebanese aren't too happy that the Bush administration delayed a UN ceasefire in the vain hope that Israel would crush Hezbollah decisively. A year ago, 39 percent of Lebanese had favorable views of the U.S. and 42 percent held unfavorable opinions. In the new poll, the breakdown is 59 percent unfavorable compared to 28 percent favorable. Half of that 59 is in the "very negative" category. 64 percent of those sampled say their attitude toward the U.S. is worse than it was before the war, and 24 percent said our country was mostly to blame for the fighting (a plurality, 40 percent, blamed Israel). Somehow, I don't think touting our progress in picking up the cluster bombs that we manufactured and sold to Israel will make much of a dent in these dismal numbers.
As Daniel Byman and Steven Simon observe in the current issue of The National Interest (sub. req'd), Iraq wasn't the only place the Bush administration failed to fill a power vacuum. The Bush administration wisely joined hands with the dastardly France at the UN in order to pressure the Syrians to withdraw their military after the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. After that, we didn't rush in with substantial money and other aid in order to marginalize Syrian influence, nor did we help in resolving border issues like the Sheba'a Farms. Then this past summer, the Bush administration unwisely dawdled on French efforts to broker a ceasefire, while the pro-Western government of Fouad Seniora was exposed as powerless--to the glee of Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah. After the war, Hezbollah hit the ground running with piles of Iranian cash for rebuilding, while the West held meetings and struggled to put together a peacekeeping coalition that is more farce than force.
We're now playing catch-up on the aid, but Lebanon is reeling from a government crisis. The Shi'ite ministers resigned from the cabinet when talks on forming a national unity government broke down, and Hezbollah is threatening to hold street demonstrations in protest. So far, Seniora is holding firm and is going ahead with an international tribunal over Hariri's death, but he has to wonder what kind of tangible help he will get from the U.S. in the event that Hezbollah makes good on its increasingly credible threats. Would you trust George Bush with your country?
--Blake Hounshell
