I'm not an expert on these things, but it certainly seems that you shouldn't rely entirely on the guy who just wrote Why the Real Estate Boom Will Not Bust -- and How You Can Profit From It to provide you with honest, accurate advice on the real estate market. Particularly if he's telling you it's already bottomed-out, and it's time to buy, buy, buy! Dean Baker, another guy they could've called (and a pessimist on the real estate situation), throws some ice water on the proceedings:
The news is that the median house sale price was down 2.7 percent in the 4th quarter of 2006 from its year ago level. That's a decline of about 5.2 percent in real terms. While Mr. Lereah is convinced that this price decline (which he insisted would not occur) is a bottom, other analysts might point to the record 2.7 percent vacancy rate for ownership units in the 4th quarter, a rate that is 50 percent higher than the vacancy rate of 2 years ago. (The vacancy rate had never previously reached 2.0 percent.) Other analysts might have also pointed to the fact that the inventory of unsold homes is 25 percent higher than at the same point less year. Other analysts may have also noted that mortgage lenders are sharply cutting back their lending in the wake of soaring mortgage delinquency and foreclosure rates.
That certainly sounds scary, though the housing market isn't something I totally understand, and the macro-economic numbers suggest it's rusting rather than busting. Still, I'm fairly pleased with a weak market, as I really like the house I rent and would prefer that my landlord has as little incentive to flip it as possible.