Lots of rumors flying around, a lot of e-mails coming in asking for exit polls. We'll know the results in about two hours -- maybe a bit more -- so I'd counsel folks to relax. Watch a movie, read a book, check out this interview with Michael Pollan. Don't trip out trying to track down every scrap of early data. The expectation in the press room is that Obama will win by a healthy margin, but that belief is being buffeted by contrary information and new rumors. The bottom line is no one knows, or even has any real idea. Nor is it clear what any of this means. Imagine Obama wins by 10. Then Nevada and South Carolina become shoo-ins, and Clinton concentrates all her fire on on February 5th. She could win in California and turn back all his momentum. Or imagine it's close, and she gets a bit of a comeback kid narrative, and suddenly SC and NV matter more. Is that good or bad for Clinton? It's unclear.This has the potential to be a long process. Clinton's support is not weak, and it's not localized to the Northeast. The main impact of a better-than-expected New Hampshire showing is that it will reawaken her fundraising base, particularly those donors who spurned her a bit in the last week. They'll be anxious to get back into favor with the possible winner, and her resources will roar back to life. And this is how it should be. It's a good thing that Iowa and New Hampshire don't simply decree the winner of the presidential race. It's a good thing that more states will participate, and the various candidates will have more time to hone their pitches, broaden their appeals, demonstrate their resonance in different regions and with different demographics. The campaign's been long, but the election remains young.(Image used under a Creative Commons license from flickr user aorr.) CALM BEFORE THE STORM.
Lots of rumors flying around, a lot of e-mails coming in asking for exit polls. We'll know the results in about two hours -- maybe a bit more -- so I'd counsel folks to relax. Watch a movie, read a book, check out this interview with Michael Pollan. Don't trip out trying to track down every scrap of early data. The expectation in the press room is that Obama will win by a healthy margin, but that belief is being buffeted by contrary information and new rumors. The bottom line is no one knows, or even has any real idea. Nor is it clear what any of this means. Imagine Obama wins by 10. Then Nevada and South Carolina become shoo-ins, and Clinton concentrates all her fire on on February 5th. She could win in California and turn back all his momentum. Or imagine it's close, and she gets a bit of a comeback kid narrative, and suddenly SC and NV matter more. Is that good or bad for Clinton? It's unclear.This has the potential to be a long process. Clinton's support is not weak, and it's not localized to the Northeast. The main impact of a better-than-expected New Hampshire showing is that it will reawaken her fundraising base, particularly those donors who spurned her a bit in the last week. They'll be anxious to get back into favor with the possible winner, and her resources will roar back to life. And this is how it should be. It's a good thing that Iowa and New Hampshire don't simply decree the winner of the presidential race. It's a good thing that more states will participate, and the various candidates will have more time to hone their pitches, broaden their appeals, demonstrate their resonance in different regions and with different demographics. The campaign's been long, but the election remains young.(Image used under a Creative Commons license from flickr user aorr.) 
