As an early detractor of Caroline Kennedy's Senate ambitions, I'm pleased to note that a plurality of New Yorkers would rather she didn't get the seat and prefer New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, even though a plurality also thinks that New York Governor David Paterson will select her to represent the state.
Cuomo is now leading Kennedy 31-24 in the eyes of New York voters, and is ahead both upstate (31-20) and in the suburbs (36-22), while she's got a slight edge among city residents (31-29).
Both men and women prefer Cuomo over Kennedy, 32-23 and 31-25, respectively.
His job approval rating is 69-16, down slightly from 72-14 in December. His favorability is 57-10 with 32 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion.
Kennedy's favorability is 39-29 with 31 percent saying they haven't heard enough about her. That's down from 46-17 last month.
On the qualification question, a good number of poll respondents (48-37) said they don't think Kennedy has the chops to be a US senator and don't think she'll perform well there (40-37).
After all that, however, 38 percent said they believe the governor will end up tapping Kennedy to replace Clinton, compared to 33 percent who think he might go with someone else.
When will Paterson decide? As Hillary Clinton is saying her farewells, I imagine a decision will be in the offing sometime next week. But the sooner the better for New York's new junior senator, who will have a lot on his or her plate as soon as he or she takes office.
-- Tim Fernholz
