It's gotten a bit less attention than the shifting momentum at the presidential level, but in the last few weeks, the outlook for Democrats in the Senate has brightened considerably. With Norm Coleman now a likely loser, you're looking at eight likely pick-ups for the Democrats, bringing them to 59 votes in the Senate. If they can win one of the more stubborn states on the list -- like Kentucky, Mississippi, or Georgia -- they've hit the holy grail of 60 votes in the Senate -- a filibuster proof majority. And many think it possible. A table may help clarify the situation. The following list aggregates the Pollster.com estimates of all the competitive Senate races to provide a snapshot of the contest for the Senate as it stands right now. Because the candidates are, on some level, incidental here, I didn't use their names. I also bolded the winning percentage, and ordered the races from the highest margin for the Democrat to the lowest margin:
Given the likely impact Obama is going to have on black turnout in places like Georgia and Mississippi -- turnout that, at least in the primary, wasn't caught in polls, because pollsters had never seen anything like it before -- it's easily possible that a slight tightening in Georgia or Mississippi could lead to an unexpected upset. Which would bring Democrats to the magic number in the Senate: 60 votes. An odd sidenote of that, though, is that if Democrats hit 60 in the Senate, good relations with Joe Lieberman become arguably more important. Since 55 seats is a lot like 56 seats, a more middling win will probably see Reid kick Lieberman out of the party entirely. But if they're trying to hold together a filibuster proof majority, you'll likely see more of an effort to make common cause. Success in that venture would probably change the incentives for a lot of moderate Republicans, too. It's an odd quirk of legislative politics that, for the minority, the first best outcome is often killing the bill entirely, but the second best outcome is being a constructive player on the bill, not voting in opposition. If you can tank the legislation, you've denied your opponents an accomplishment they can use to run against you. But if you can't tank the legislation, you may as well insert your priorities into the final bill so you have an accomplishment you can use when you run against them.
