SACRAMENTO, CALIF. -- As the imminence of war in Iraq has increased -- and even as American public opinion has become more supportive of that war -- opposition emerged as the central theme of a California Democratic Party convention last weekend that was visited by a half-dozen Democratic presidential hopefuls. In the first major campaign "cattle call" outside Washington, the opponents of war with Iraq, most notably former Gov. HowardDean (D-Vt.), were rapturously received. The supporters of war, widely regarded as the leading candidates in the nascent campaign, were not.
California draws significant attention from presidential candidates not only because of its role as a national political ATM and its standing as the source of one-fifth of the electoral votes needed to win the White House, but also because next year's primary calendar may make it the biggest prize of the primary season's Super Tuesday. The earliest engagements -- in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and elsewhere -- may well yield a split result. So March 2 -- when California and nine other states, including New York, vote -- may prove decisive.
Here's how the Democratic contenders -- announced and still exploring, present and absent -- came off at the most populous state's annual Democratic convention.
JOHN KERRY. Coming to California with the air of a putative if still relatively little-known front-runner, the mostly liberal Massachusetts senator and Vietnam War hero cruised through the San Francisco Bay Area, giving a well-received address to the Commonwealth Club and attending a $900,000 fund-raiser before running the swift boat of his candidacy onto a Sacramento sandbar. His vote last fall giving George W. Bush the authority needed to launch a war against Iraq prompted some Kerry gymnastics in a press conference with state and national reporters, as the senator explained how he was changing his position without, um, changing his position. Even more worrisome for Kerry partisans than his parsing of his position on the war -- he would be for an Iraq war if necessary but not this war so undiplomatically put together by this president -- should be his performance at state Democratic Party Chairman Art Torres' welcoming reception Friday night.
Unable because of his schedule to address a convention session on Saturday or Sunday, Kerry was invited, along with Gov. Gray Davis (D-Calif.) and Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), to make some remarks at the chairman's evening reception. Kerry treated this event, which usually takes the form of a meet-and-greet affair, as something far more formal, delivering a 40-minute address that most of the crowd quickly tuned out. The occasion was casual, the room was hot, the sound system was poor and the din of most of the delegates became more than noticeable after the first 10 minutes. Yet Kerry, with his super-rich wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, looking more than a little uncomfortable standing by his side, soldiered on and eventually finished the speech, which included several "in conclusions" that, unfortunately, were not realized. (In something of an oddity, Teresa is referred to as "Mrs. Heinz" by the Kerry staff.)
This caused former Gov. Jerry Brown (D-Calf.), who'd attended Kerry's San Francisco dinner and has won more than a few presidential primaries himself, to note that he wasn't sure Teresa Heinz Kerry "likes campaigning that much." Well, not if she's going to have to stand there during a speech that was four times as long as it should have been. Kerry is clearly a seasoned senator with many interesting things to say about foreign policy, national security and energy and environmental matters, but if he doesn't develop a better sense of when to talk and when to keep quiet, his candidacy will be in trouble.
And in what may be an ominous sign, the senator easily won the regular straw poll of California journalists as the most likely Democratic nominee. Why is this a bad thing? Because it's always wrong. In 1998, for example, only two journalists picked Gray Davis as the next Governor, and one went on to work for him. The other is still writing, and enjoys poking fun at the straw poll.
HOWARD DEAN. By evidence of his convention performance, the former Vermont governor is very much for real. Delivering the most tumultuously received speech in several years at a California convention, Dean, who said he is "running to represent the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party," repeatedly brought the delegates to their feet. Excoriating every aspect of the Bush agenda, Dean thundered to an explosive finish, denouncing the Iraq war and shouting, "I want my country back!" as the delegates screamed. Afterward, Dean's literature table was rushed by delegates who took every one of his buttons and signs.
Dean also pointedly criticized two of the top-tier Democratic candidates, Kerry and Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.), for supporting the war in Washington but criticizing it in California. Actually, only Kerry could be accused of that; Edwards bravely spoke of his support for military action against Saddam Hussein and was roundly booed for it.
Dean is a rather cerebral dark horse and medical doctor whose campaign not-so-subtly encourages comparisons to The West Wing's flinty yet passionate President Jed Bartlet, also a brainiac New England ex-governor. Indeed, Dean enjoys the support of West Wing star Martin Sheen and, with "Dean For America" (which is also the name of the ex-governor's Web site), has even borrowed the "Bartlet For America" slogan of the TV show. (A Dean organizer claims that the Dean campaign had the slogan first. Actually, the Bartlet slogan has been floating around for several years, and the West Wing episode "Bartlet For America" aired in December 2001. The Dean domain name was registered the following month.)
JOHN EDWARDS. A year ago, this freshman senator and multimillionaire former trial lawyer bombed at the state Democratic convention in Los Angeles. His theme last year? The concerns of "the average American" -- that staple of most Democratic speeches -- whom he claimed was being ignored by other politicians. His performance included not only a vacuous pudding of a speech but a press conference that began with a reporter asking, "Senator, why are you here?" -- and went downhill from there. This year he fared much better.
To his credit, Edwards did not dodge or try to spin his position on the Iraq war, earning widespread boos from convention delegates when he said that military action is needed to remove the threat of Saddam Hussein. Despite the boos, Edwards delivered an otherwise well-received speech, frequently interrupted by applause, in which he skillfully turned his surface image as a wealthy, pretty-boy Southern lawyer into a populist parable, that of the mill worker's son who became a trial lawyer and struck it rich by suing powerful corporate interests on behalf of, yes, the average American. If Edwards turns out to be more in tune with voters in the aftermath of the Iraq war, he could do very well in California and elsewhere.
JOE LIEBERMAN. The Polonius-like Connecticut senator, 2000 vice-presidential nominee and hero of the Democratic Leadership Council was slated to appear at the convention but canceled, citing scheduling problems. (His stumping is complicated by his policy of not campaigning on the Saturday Sabbath.) It was just as well. In his stead, a Lieberman video was shown to the delegates, who roundly booed it. California AFL-CIO chief Art Pulaski then took the stage and asked Torres to call Lieberman and report the response to the video. The delegates cheered this rather impolite suggestion loudly. So much for residual good feelings toward the onetime would-be vice president.
DENNIS KUCINICH. With Dean emerging as the most prominent anti-war candidate, other war opponents in the field may have trouble gaining traction. Unless they do something a little different. As George W. Bush was taking the stage in the Azores to announce that there was only one day left for diplomacy before Saddam Hussein had to "immediately and unconditionally disarm," the radical Ohio representative and erstwhile boy mayor of Cleveland began his speech to the convention. With song. The House Progressive Caucus chairman has taken to opening speeches with snippets from patriotic hymns such as "America the Beautiful" and "The Star-Spangled Banner." This most militantly anti-war of candidates uses his singing both to startle the audience -- it does -- and to juxtapose his sense of patriotism with what he sees as a sinister right-wing takeover of America. It's something Kucinich started when he wowed the Southern California Americans for Democratic Action group while denouncing the "war on terrorism" shortly after September 11.
What will he do when the Iraq war starts? Not what other ranking Democratic war critics say they'll do. "I will keep on speaking out and protesting," Kucinich said before his speech. Even with troops in harm's way? "Yes."
AL SHARPTON. The minister, civil-rights activist and would-be New York City politician drew applause with a well-delivered speech against the war. But he bristled afterward at questions about his controversial past, which has included criticizing Jewish-owned businesses and very aggressively publicizing a purported hate crime that turned out to be a hoax. Is he worried that the entrance of former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun (D-Ill.) -- reportedly encouraged to run by Democrats fearful that the polarizing Sharpton might run away with much of the black primary vote -- will harm his campaign? "I'm not worried that Carol will take my black vote," he quipped. "I'm worried that Lieberman will take my Jewish vote."
CAROL MOSELEY BRAUN. Does this presidential race need yet another candidate who's against the war and espouses predictably liberal views on other matters? The former senator and ambassador to New Zealand said nothing that was not said by many others at the convention. Still, she is the only female presidential hopeful -- and one of only two African Americans -- and that might count for something.
DICK GEPHARDT. Like his fellow pro-war Beltway Democrat Joe Lieberman, the veteran former House leader stayed away from the convention. Perhaps the most interesting thing about the absence of this longtime party lion is that it wasn't talked of much by consultants or journalists, who all but ignored him in the straw poll even though he is counted a front-runner in the field.
BOB GRAHAM. The veteran senator and former Florida governor, an opponent of the Iraq war resolution last fall, skipped the California convention on account of his ongoing recovery from heart surgery. Graham has had no particular California presence in the past, and most consultants and activists who talked about him at the convention viewed him as a candidate for vice president.
GARY HART. The former Colorado senator, who won big in California in his 1984 presidential campaign, is exploring a comeback 16 years after ending his front-running 1988 candidacy in the wake of a sex scandal. Hart gained fresh currency with his leadership of the Bill Clinton-created U.S. Commission on National Security, which predicted major terrorist attacks two years before 9-11. Following a round of well-received television appearances and policy speeches, Hart has just started raising exploratory money but skipped the cattle call in California. "He's easily the most impressive of all of them," says one prominent California journalist who has spent time with most of the candidates. But is Hart really running for president -- or for secretary of state?
William Bradley, political writer for the LA Weekly and consultant on the NBC television series Mister Sterling, has served as a senior adviser in Democratic presidential and gubernatorial campaigns.