THE CHESS GAME BEGINS. Not that these polls mean anything this far out, but CNN yesterday released a poll of voters about the potential '08 candidates, and it's interesting to note that the only discernable trends thus far are a decline in support for John Edwards and John Kerry, and a rise in the percent of undecideds, over the course of the fall. Hillary Clinton draws more than twice the support (37 percent) of Barack Obama (15 percent) or Al Gore (14 percent), the next two leading potential contenders.
That's not fabulous news for Edwards. He's managed to frame himself as being well-positioned in Iowa, where Clinton has not made major investments as yet, but I'm starting to hear other Democrats now framing Edwards' race as Iowa or out, because failing to capture the state twice won't give him enough momentum to carry him through the other contests. Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack will be running, but he may not have enough of a presence in the race to give people a reason to discount the importance of Iowa as a launching pad. Pre-Obama-mania, it looked like Edwards would need to knock out Vilsack in Iowa in order to be competitive with Clinton heading into New Hampshire, after which, even if he came in second, he could rebound heading into the friendly territory of South Carolina. (The Nevada caucuses, which will come between Iowa and NH, are a real wild card.) But if Obama runs, he'd need to nip all that in the bud, which means he'd need to try to knock out Edwards in Iowa and at least come in second to Vilsack, if not win outright, to get momentum heading into the rest of the contests.
Which means that, despite all the committees and changes, what happens in Iowa will continue to matter far more than it should.
--Garance Franke-Ruta
