Feng at ID has a good discussion of the expansion of China's military budget, and in particular its interest in building aircraft carriers. Coincidentally, I gave a talk last week at Campbellsville University which focused on these issues. My general thoughts run thus: There is no question that Chinese military capabilities are increasing, but this fact does not necessarily imply conflict between the US and China or danger to US interests. Increase in Chinese military expenditure has substantially outpaced Chinese economic growth over the past ten years, and will do so by a slightly greater margin this year. This year's growth is in some part attributable to increased stimulus spending; it wouldn't be reasonable to expect China to decrease its military spending in the face of a severe global recession. And so the increase of Chinese capabilities is a fact. Facts, however, do not unproblematically lend themselves to interpretation. As China's economy has grown, its dependence on global trade (both import and export) has increased. To rely on the United States to maintain maritime security would be absurd, especially in the context of a US maritime strategy that specifically argues for greater cooperation between naval powers. Thus, it's not difficult to argue that China's military growth is driven by genuine Chinese security concern. The development of aircraft carriers can be similarly interpreted as giving China a capability to intervene abroad in defense of various interests. The neoconservative view of such developments is, of course, more sinister; Chinese military spending is designed particularly to seize Taiwan and generally to challenge US hegemony in the western Pacific and Southeast Asia. There's little to back up such claims, but events like this (in which several Chinese vessels harassed a US spy vessel) can be held as palpable evidence of China's ill intent. The fact that China has wholeheartedly embraced the US led world economic system, and that reordering the system would entail enormous costs for China even if successful, rarely enters into such analyses. Finally, the realist account of the rise of Chinese military power has much to recommend it, in that the account makes no effort to derive Chinese intent. Rather, it is assumed that the growth of Chinese power will create friction with the United States in a variety of ways independent of the intent of either actor. There is truth in this, although it's important to note that rising powers have, in the past, accommodated themselves and been accommodated by the hegemons of the time. On a closing note, CNAS yesterday released its new Asia-Pacific strategic document, which should cover many of these questions. Haven't had a chance to read yet, but will soon. --Robert Farley
