(Posted by John.)
James Mann has a newish book out, called The China Fantasy, where he apparently takes the US intellectual class to task for an overly-sanguine view on Chinese development. While I haven't read it yet, I believe the thesis is nicely distilled in his Washington Post piece here:
The optimists assume that once a country becomes more affluent, its emerging middle class will press for democratic change. But in China, the middle class (itself still tiny as a proportion of the overall population) supports or at least goes along with the existing political order; after all, that order made it middle class in the first place. The ruling party allows urban elites the freedom to wear and buy what they want, to see the world, to have affairs, to invest and to profit mightily; in return, the elites don't challenge the Communist Party's hold on power. Moreover, China's new business community is hardly independent of the party; in effect, it is the party, linked to China's power structure through financial connections or family ties.
There's parts to Mann's argument that I think are good -- somedays I too think people underestimate the CCP's lifespan -- but overall I think Mann is on the other extreme: impressed with what he perceives as successful governance from Beijing, and willing to credit it with more skill than I think it deserves. There's plenty of good examples of Chinese failures of governance -- food and the environment are decent examples recently.
