Ross Douthat ponders a push for prison reform on the right:
This political dynamic explains why the chances for effective prison reform probably depend on Nixon-to-China conservatives, who can put the credibility the Right has built up on law and order to good use. (It wouldn't hurt if conservatives were willing to champion some alternative approaches to crime reduction as well.) But they probably also depend on crime rates staying flat, or falling - and in the current downturn that may be too much to hope for.
There are a lot of reasons for conservatives to push for reforming the criminal justice system outside of the libertarian case against excessive incarceration, draconian drug laws and paramilitary policing. For fiscal conservatives, there's the knowledge that corrections spending costs taxpayer 60 million dollars a year. Many religious conservatives, such as Chuck Colson, are adamant about the power of and potential for redemption among the incarcerated, and the fact is the impact of mass incarceration on families is devastating.
We've already seen some religious conservatives heading in this direction. Sam Brownback's support was vital to reforming parole in Kansas, and George W. Bush supported and signed the Second Chance Act last year, which provided government funds for reentry programs. In both cases, their support for reentry was informed by their religious background.
Anyway, it's possible that recession and unemployment will make running on traditional "crime prevention" strategies too attractive for conservatives looking to win elections, and drain public support for policies that appear not to be "tough on crime." But both on the state and federal level, the momentum is on the side of prison reform advocates, who seem to be winning some converts on the right and have a sympathetic ally in the White House. I actually think it's possible that substantive changes, some of which are already taking place, will occur on the state level, without a big national conversation.
UPDATE: I accidentally published an early and not so edited draft of this post, rather than the one that was finished.
-- A. Serwer
