The 41st Canadian federal election, held yesterday, turned the country's political landscape upside down. Despite predictions from most experts, Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party won an outright majority government, taking 167 seats out of 308, which means they control Parliament .
Despite the Conservative victory, however, the New Democratic Party, which is further to the left than Canada's Liberal party, made an unusually strong showing. The NDP won 102 seats, which surpasses their previous high of 43 in 1988. For all of its 50-year history, the NDP -- viewed as the conscience of Canada's politics because of its progressive stance on various social and political issues -- had been relegated to a minor status, occupying third- and sometimes fourth-party status. With yesterday's elections, though, it became the second largest party in Parliament.
Canada's oldest and most historically successful federal political party, the Liberal Party, and the Bloc Québécois, a party that argued for Quebec independence and dominated in the second-most populace province, were decimated. The Liberals find themselves relegated to an unprecedented third place in Parliament. The Bloc fell to a record low of 4 seats, rendering them virtually meaningless within a parliamentary system, and vacates its position as the voice of Quebec at the federal level, which it has occupied for more than 20 years.
The unprecedented rise of the NDP makes clear the danger of vote splitting on the left. But the Conservative victory also provides an opportunity for those on the left to address this weakness. The potential exists to, at the very least, begin serious talks about how a united left can challenge Conservative dominance, and the answer may lie in uniting the Liberal Party, the NDP and the Bloc vote under one banner. This election actually shows that a more American-style, two-party system might help progressives in Canada.
In some cases, the vote splits between competing center-left parties proved decisive. Liberal and NDP candidates devoured each other and allowed Conservative candidates to win. The strength of the social democratic vote, and not necessarily a more conservative electorate, helped the Conservatives.
Harper will most likely take the country to the right as he capitalizes on the mandate provided to him by the Canadian people. The conventions and rules of parliamentary democracy prevent the opposition from stopping him. How quickly and aggressively he pursues a right-wing agenda remains to be seen. Some suggest he will pursue a more moderate, centrist agenda. Those on the left remain skeptical, though. For progressives, having their party as the official opposition provides cold comfort.
A move to the right could also ignite discussion on the creation of a larger progressive political party. But these conversations will mostly occur outside of political institutions. Canadian politics will now be inundated with talk of how to unite the left. Or the failure of the Liberals may organically create a situation in which they simply disappear. The election may have created stable political outcomes in the form of a majority government, but this stability may, paradoxically, foster the most fluid and volatile political environment Canada has seen in some time.
This election also demonstrates that center-right voters abandoned the Liberal Party (especially in the seat-rich province of Ontario) because they feared a Conservative minority government held in check by the NDP. Harper successfully painted the NDP as the socialist bogeyman poised to form government if the Conservatives did not gain a strong majority. A merger between the NDP and Liberals will face challenges from these same center-right Liberals who will see it as a betrayal of their fundamental beliefs and values. This election has ultimately forced upon the Liberals both a practical and existential reassessment. The political realignment of the Canadian Parliament provides the context for this reappraisal.
In Quebec, it is clear that voters there sought a center-left, progressive alternative without the pro-sovereignty message of the Bloc. Quebec represents a constituency most sympathetic to progressive values, but it has a history of political fickleness. Any attempt to create a broader progressive party will have to begin there. Because the bulk of the NDP caucus comes from Quebec, the NDP will need to challenge the Harper government in a way that still articulates the concerns and interests of Quebec and at the same time offer a pan-Canadian message.
Both the left and right in Canada face challenges within this new political landscape. If the Harper government aggressively pushes the country to the right, it may awaken the giant that is a mobilized, a united center-left, progressive constituency. For the left, much of the political fight will have to be waged outside the halls of power. Despite forming the official opposition in Parliament, the realities of a majority government mean that progressive voices will have to engage in a grand discussion outside of political institutions about how to unite the left and challenge the Conservative hold on power.
