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CONVENTIONAL CAPABILITY. Yglesias writes:
Also worth mentioning in this context is the basic point that the Iranian and Syrian militaries just aren't able to conduct meaningful offensive military operations. The Saudi, Kuwait, and Jordanian militaries are even worse.True, up to a point. Iranian and Syrian offensive capabilities are a joke compared to the United States and Israel, and would collapse even against token US opposition. Also, there are some military organizations that genuinely lack the capacity for offensive action; in the late 1970s, Egypt considered invading Libya, but the US advised against it on the grounds that the offensive would likely fail even in the absence of meaningful Libyan opposition. In most cases, however, it's the relative balance of power that matters. Iran may not be able to occupy a post-US Iraq (and it's unlikely to want to) but it can still use its conventional power to advantage against forces that lack Iran's conventional capabilities. In 1986-1987, Iran very nearly took Basra in battle against an Iraqi Army that was somewhat competent in conventional warfare and that had, if not the latest, at least relatively advanced Soviet weaponry. While I defer to specialists, I'd be at least a bit surprised to learn that the relative Iranian position has substantially deteriorated since them, especially given the fact that the Iraqi Army has been completely destroyed, and that its successor won't receive any heavy equipment for several years, at least. This isn't to say that Drum and Yglesias are wrong in betting against a regional conflagration, though. Rather, I suspect that the players in the region will take account of what amounts to Iranian conventional superiority while at the same time recognizing that Iran lacks the capacity to invade, conquer, and permanently occupy its neighbors. Iran will derive some advantage from its conventional position, maybe even enough to push events in Iraq in its preferred direction, but not without making some allowance for the preferences of Syria, Jordan, Turkey, and the Gulf monarchies. The conflagration, to the extent there is one, will probably be limited to Iraq, although this will be of little consolation to the Iraqis. --Robert Farley
